Higher education funding reforms in England: the distributional effects and the shifting balance of costs

effects of the reforms, as the lifetime earnings distributions do not represent forecasts
of future earnings of graduates. Rather, they are based on current earnings data.
Estimating the distribution of earnings of future graduates poses more severe
challenges, particularly as this distribution is likely to itself be affected by the
reforms. This is for a number of reasons. First, the reforms may affect the decision to
participate in HE, which may alter the composition of students/graduates and thus
earnings. Second, the reforms may have general equilibrium effects, through affecting
the supply of graduates for example, which may alter the relative wages of future
graduates. Third, the reforms may affect choices at university, such as courses studied
and the length of time spent at university, both of which may affect lifetime earnings.
We leave these important topics for future work to address.

Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute of Education, University of London

Institute for Fiscal Studies

Institute for Fiscal Studies

New York University and Institute for Fiscal Studies

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