projected revenues at $65 (with adjustments for awareness and internal hypothetical bias) to the
benchmark revenues ($30 million and $1 million for the RDD and NPF populations).
Panel B of Table 9 shows the total degree of awareness and hypothetical bias using the RDD sample
and the non-parametric forecasts implies that NRP revenues are approximately 16 times higher than the
unadjusted data suggest. The total bias using the NPF sample is much lower and even slightly negative in
the non-parametric case. This suggests the overall hypothetical bias for the general public RDD sample is
greater than the bias for the more pass-experienced NPF sample. The result also confirms previous
empirical and meta-analysis research that market experience helps mitigate valuation biases (e.g., List and
Shogren, 1998; Cherry et al., 2003; Cherry and Shogren, 2007; List and Gallet, 2001; Murphy et al.,
2005).
6.2 Projected Revenue Functions
In Table 8, we present non-parametric, calibrated estimates for NRP and gate revenues from the RDD
and NPF samples.
6.2.1 NRP Revenue
As shown in Table 8, the NRP revenue functions reach maximums at approximately $25 and $45 for
the RDD and NPF samples.11 For the RDD sample, NRP revenues drop sharply at $45 and then level off
up to $105, after which pass revenues again begin to fall more rapidly. In the NPF sample, the decline in
pass revenues after the peak is steady out to $275. The degree of sensitivity of NRP revenues to price
reflects the elasticity of the underlying demand curve for the NRP. Recall, all these revenue functions are
calibrated for awareness, hypothetical and external bias as described in Section 6.1.
6.2.2 Gate Revenue
11 We calculate the non-parametric revenue functions by assuming the household’s true WTP is at the midpoint of
the chosen bid interval. Households that answer “YES” to both bids are assigned a WTP equal to $10 plus the high
bid. Households that answer “NO” to both bids, but “YES” when asked if they would accept the new pass for free,
are assigned a WTP equal to half the lower bid. Those that reject both bids, and also say they would not accept the
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