fall by 1.63 percentage points. The unemployment rate effect on the average
net probability of moving up for women is only about a third that of men.
Fourth, it is found for men that the cyclical sensitivity of earnings
mobility decreases monotonically with age — strongest among entry age
workers and weakest for older workers. So the cross-sectional, age-earnings
profiles swivel downward and become steeper in recessions and swivel
upward and become flatter over economic expansions. For women workers,
the net cyclical effects on earnings mobility are far smaller showing no such
statistically significant pattern.
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