VIII Future Research and Conclusion
A few key messages can be taken from this report. First, assuming Aboriginal Canadians
increase their level of educational attainment, their potential contribution to Canada‘s economy,
while small in aggregate terms, is still significant. Second, the key to increasing educational
attainment is to increase the number of Aboriginal Canadians graduating from high school, as
this not only increases the potential economic contribution of these individuals but also creates a
larger pool of potential university graduates. Third, to maximize the potential of Aboriginal
Canadians not only should the educational level of their youth be increased, but also that of their
older people. In this context, programs to provide high school education targeted at all
Aboriginal Canadians without high school education under 35 or even older could be considered.
Fourth, the analysis in this paper ignores the dynamic effect that increased education can have of
the leadership capacity of the Aboriginal community and therefore may underestimate the
contribution of increased education of Aboriginal Canadians to future output and productivity
growth. Better educated Aboriginal Canadians will be more effective leaders and thereby provide
better direction for the economic development of Aboriginal communities.
Investing in disadvantaged children is one of the rare public policy with no equity-
efficiency tradeoff. This report estimated the potential benefit for the Canadian economy of
increasing the educational attainment level of Aboriginal Canadians. We found that increasing
the number of Aboriginal Canadians who complete high school is a low-hanging fruit with far-
reaching and considerable economic and social benefits for Canadians. Not only would it
significantly contribute to the personal well-being of Aboriginal Canadians, but it would also
contribute to alleviating two of the most pressing challenges facing the Canadian economy;
slower labour force growth and lackluster labour productivity growth.
In fact, we found that if in 2017 the educational attainment of Aboriginal Canadians
reaches the same level non-Aboriginal Canadians had attained in 2001, the potential contribution
of Aboriginal Canadians is up to an additional cumulative $160 billion over the 2001-2017
period ($2001). This represents a 0.081 percentage point increase in the annual average growth
rate of GDP. Moreover, the potential contribution of Aboriginal Canadians to the total growth of
the labour force between 2001 and 2017 is projected to be up to 7.39 per cent of the total labour
force growth, much higher than their projected 3.37 per cent share of the working age population
in 2017. Their potential contribution to Canadian GDP average annual growth rate related only
to an increase in educational attainment is 0.036 percentage point per year, or a cumulative $71
billion ($2001) over the 2001-2017 period. Finally, we find that the potential contribution of
Aboriginal Canadians to the annual growth rate of labour productivity in Canada is up to 0.037
percentage point, of which 0.016 percentage point is directly attributable to an increase in
educational attainment. Aboriginal Canadians are without doubt one of the groups where the
potential benefits of increasing educational attainment clearly outweigh the costs.
This report opens a number of opportunities for future research. Most obvious is the
continuous monitoring and updating of the potential contribution of Aboriginal Canadians to the
national economy. The new 2006 census data on Aboriginal income and labour market
performance, which should be available in 2008, will provide an opportunity to assess the
progress of Aboriginal Canadians since 2001 and adjust projections of their future potential