1. The growth of population aged 15 and over, which is
a function of birth and death rates and net immigra-
tion, interacts with changes in the participation rate
to determine the growth of the labour force.
2. Dugan and Robidoux (1999) take a similar approach.
In contrast with an earlier article (Ip, King and Ver-
dries,1998), this article has an explicit Canada-U.S.
comparison, puts more weight on compositional fac-
tors, and less on cyclical factors. The use of annual
averages and data for all of 1998, produces somewhat
different calculations and estimations.
3. Archambault and Grignon (1999) were unable to use
educational cost variables because of data limitations.
4. Except where noted, sources of data are Statistics Can-
ada and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. Note that population shares are not perfectly compa-
rable between Canada and the United States because
of the inclusion of 15-year-olds in the Canadian fig-
ures. The United States population is defined to in-
clude people aged 16 years and older.
6. These calculations do not take into account the effect
of the changes in age composition of the aggregate
rate.
7. The calculation varies somewhat with the number of
age/sex groups used. This estimation uses 12 groups
and 1989 participation rates. Dugan and Robidoux
(1999) used 16 groups for 1989 to 1996 to estimate a
contribution of -0.75 or about 28 per cent of the total
drop. Beaudry and Lemieux (1999) took account of
the age composition effect but only for female partici-
pation rates on which they find only a small effect on
“recent changes”. In addition the estimation period
does not include 1995 to 1997.
8. Their explanation is the earlier aging of the U.S. popu-
lation.
9. In 1997 the participation rate for non-students was 78
per cent, while for students it was 35 per cent.
10. Although for the United States the measure is an en-
rolment rate, the term “attendance” is used through-
out for simplicity.
11. Jennings (1998) attributes a further 38 per cent of the
decline in the youth participation rate from 1989 to
1997 to the fall in full-time student participation rates
and 11 per cent to the fall in non-student participation
rates.
12. Teens 16-19 have been used for comparison purposes
with the United States.
Data for Canada are for attendance at school but for
the United States the measure is enrolment in school.
Thus, there could be a small upward bias in the U.S.
measure relative to the Canadian rate.
U.S. school enrolment statistics are based on replies
to the Current Population Survey interviewer’s inquiry
whether the person was enrolled in regular school.
Such schools include elementary and high schools,
colleges, universities, and professional schools but ex-
clude those that are not in the regular school system,
such as trade schools, business colleges and schools
for the mentally handicapped, which do not advance
students to regular school degrees. Attendance may
be on full- or part-time (U.S. Department of Com-
merce, 1995).
For Canada, school attendance statistics are based on
replies to the LFS interviewer’s inquiry about whether
the person was attending any educational estab-
lishment (primary, secondary, community college,
junior college, CEGEP, university or others) either full-
or part-time and taking credit courses toward a degree,
diploma or certificate.
We thank Deborah Sunter of Statistics Canada, Labour
Force Survey Division for providing data for the 16-19
and 20-24 age groups for both countries for 1989 and
1997.
13. The unemployment rate in the U.S. for those with less
than a high school diploma was 8.1 per cent in 1997
compared with 2 per cent for those with a college
degree.
14. The OECD (1997) found that even though the supply
of workers with low education levels generally fell
between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, their la-
bour-market situation worsened in most countries.
15. The indicators used for these estimates are not entirely
consistent, relying on full- and part time attendance
rates in the Canadian/U.S. differences and on Jen-
nings estimates, which use full-time rates. Thus, they
should be interpreted as simply an indication of the
possible effect of the fall in attendance rates.
16. See Card and Riddell (1996) for a discussion of the
role of EI and labour force attachment. The broader
definition of job-seeking in Canada than in the United
States also increases the probability that someone who
is not working, will be included in the labour force.
17. This estimate uses information from Macredie (1996),
18. Fullerton (1997) notes, in passing, the paucity of re-
search on the long-term decrease in participation rates
of core-aged men.
19. Beaudry and Lemieux (1999) found the flattening of
the female participation rate in the 1990s is primarily
a structural phenomenon.
20. Hayghe (1997) notes that, in the United States, the
participation rates for most groups of women in the
25-54 age group rose in the 1970s and 1980s, but that
growth was greatest for mothers of children under age
18.
21. The average time per year spent in the labour force by
women had been nine months in 1960. See Motley,
1996.
22. In a recent survey, Statistics Canada found women
were more likely than men to feel overqualified for
their jobs. In 1994, 24 per cent of women with a degree
or college diploma were likely to have a clerical or
service job compared with 8 per cent of men. “One
possible explanation is that more women than men
may accept jobs with lower-level requirements in or-
der to balance family demands and earning an in-
come.” Kelly, Howatson-Leo and Clark (1997). Also,
a much larger proportion of women than men work
part-time.
Summer 1999
Canadian Business Economics
15