Intertemporal Risk Management Decisions of Farmers under Preference, Market, and Policy Dynamics

Figure 3. Stochastic Trend Model Fitting for Grant Wheat Yield (1972-2003)

Predicted vs. Actual

Unit: Bushel/Acre

100

Z~∙^.-> /

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

Note: The lower bound and upper bound are based on 95% confidence intervals.

38

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