International Food and Agribusiness
Management Review 3 (2000) 189-205
International Food
and. t
Agribusiness
Management Review
Cohort analysis of food consumption: a case of rapidly
changing Japanese consumption
Hiroshi Mori*, Everett G. Lowe III, Dennis L. Clason, William D. Gorman
New Mexico State University, Department of Ag. Economics and Agr. Bus., Box 30003, MSC 3169,
Las Cruces, NM 88003-8003, USA
1. Introduction
According to the “1989 -91 USDA Survey of Food Intakes,” older American adults
consume much more coffee than younger ones, while the opposite is the case with pop (soda)
(Table 1). In forecasting consumption of coffee and pop in the future, as the US population
ages as a whole, there can be two extremely different projections. One is that those in their
twenties and thirties in the 1980s might consume much more coffee and much less pop as
they reach their forties and fifties, resulting in a substantial increase and decrease, respec-
tively, in consumption of coffee and pop (as a nation). The other possibility is that those
younger adults in the 1980s might retain their consumption habits for soft drinks as they get
older, resulting in drastic decreases and increases, respectively, in consumption of coffee and
pop (Rentz & Reynolds, 1991).
According to Tanaka and Mori (1998), in 1989, Japanese adults in their twenties and
thirties consumed, at home, approximately 5 kg of mandarin oranges as compared to
approximately 15 kg consumed by those in their late forties, fifties and early sixties, per
capita, per year. In the early 2000s, consumption of mandarin oranges would have increased
substantially if the younger adults in the 1980s eat as much mandarins after 20 years as the
middle-aged groups in the 1980s, period effects ignored. However, on the contrary, con-
sumption would have decreased substantially, if these younger adults in the 1980s retain their
consumption habits of mandarins even after they reach their forties or fifties.
The first prediction, either for soft drinks or mandarins, is based on the assumption of pure
age effects alone and the second on the assumption of predominance of consumers’ cohort
membership effects in consumption changes.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 11-505-646-3923; fax: 11-505-646-3522.
E-mail address: [email protected] (H. Mori).
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