The name is absent



14

Tab. 6: Forecast of employed persons in the local labour markets of the conurbation
Ruhr and the regions around 1997 - 2004

Labour-market

Employed persons

Forecast 2004
share FRG

Forecast 2004

Employed people

(in

000)

Name

1991

1997

Change in

(in 1000)*

%

Conurbation

Ruhrarea_________

Duisburg

457,9

415,9

-5.8

391,8

Essen

321,5

305,0

-0.9

302,6

Gelsenkirchen

417,0

383,5

-3.5

370,1

Bochum

173,0

163,2

-1.5

160,8

Dortmund

490,2

450,8

-1.9

442,2

Hagen__________

96,4

85,4

-7.2

79,3________

Total_____________

1,956,0

1,803,8

-3.2

1.746,1

Regions around

Düsseldorf

777,0

740,1

0Γ^

745,3

Wuppertal

242,9

211,3

-3.1

204,7

Schwelm

137,0

123,4

-2.4

120,4

Kleve

101,7

101,0

3.0

104,0

Münster

330,7

342,3

3.6

354,6

Borken

143,4

147,3

6.0

156,1

Steinfurt

166,5

161,0

2.4

164,9

Lüdenscheid

213,9

195,6

1.1

197,8

Soest______________

120,9

123,2

2.4

126,2

Total_____________

2,234,0

2,145,2

1.4

2,175,2

Source: Bomer, 2000 b, page 85; F.J. Bade (1999): Regionale Entwicklung der
Erwerbstatigkeit 1997 - 2004. Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und
Berufsforschung, Heft 4/1999, Nürnberg;

*author´s calculation; assumption: GDP-growth is as large as the growth of
productivity; this means that the number of employed people in the FRG will be
constant.

Dortmund has a much better perspective than Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen and Hagen.
But in absolute terms it is still negative and also in relative terms in comparison with
the neighbouring regions like Münster; Lüdenscheid and Soest.

Also a new special analysis of the University of Dortmund about the past and the
provided future of the economic structure and activity levels of the city of Dortmund
(Bade et al., 2002) describes very clearly that ceteris paribus the city of Dortmund
will not be able to compensate the deep negative effects of the regional crisis by
means of its own activities, although its economic development strategy is very
ambitious and managed in a professional way (see chapter II).

From 1976 to 2000 in the city of Dortmund the number of the employed persons was
reduced by 13.5%. Only in the years 1985-1991 and in the year 2000 did the amount
of employed people grow. In the region Dortmund, Unna, Hamm, which includes the
main sub-urbanisation areas of the city of Dortmund, this number fell by about 3%
(Bade 2002, 9; see figure 7, appendix). The development of the employed people in
Dortmund in comparison to selected large cities (Bade, 2002, 9) and the relative
development of employed people in Dortmund in comparison to the development of



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