14
Tab. 6: Forecast of employed persons in the local labour markets of the conurbation
Ruhr and the regions around 1997 - 2004
|
Labour-market |
Employed persons |
Forecast 2004 |
Forecast 2004 Employed people | |||
|
(in |
000) | |||||
|
Name |
1991 |
1997 |
Change in |
(in 1000)* | ||
|
% | ||||||
|
Conurbation Ruhrarea_________ | ||||||
|
Duisburg |
457,9 |
415,9 |
-5.8 |
391,8 | ||
|
Essen |
321,5 |
305,0 |
-0.9 |
302,6 | ||
|
Gelsenkirchen |
417,0 |
383,5 |
-3.5 |
370,1 | ||
|
Bochum |
173,0 |
163,2 |
-1.5 |
160,8 | ||
|
Dortmund |
490,2 |
450,8 |
-1.9 |
442,2 | ||
|
Hagen__________ |
96,4 |
85,4 |
-7.2 |
79,3________ | ||
|
Total_____________ |
1,956,0 |
1,803,8 |
-3.2 |
1.746,1 | ||
|
Regions around | ||||||
|
Düsseldorf |
777,0 |
740,1 |
0Γ^ |
745,3 | ||
|
Wuppertal |
242,9 |
211,3 |
-3.1 |
204,7 | ||
|
Schwelm |
137,0 |
123,4 |
-2.4 |
120,4 | ||
|
Kleve |
101,7 |
101,0 |
3.0 |
104,0 | ||
|
Münster |
330,7 |
342,3 |
3.6 |
354,6 | ||
|
Borken |
143,4 |
147,3 |
6.0 |
156,1 | ||
|
Steinfurt |
166,5 |
161,0 |
2.4 |
164,9 | ||
|
Lüdenscheid |
213,9 |
195,6 |
1.1 |
197,8 | ||
|
Soest______________ |
120,9 |
123,2 |
2.4 |
126,2 | ||
|
Total_____________ |
2,234,0 |
2,145,2 |
1.4 |
2,175,2 | ||
Source: Bomer, 2000 b, page 85; F.J. Bade (1999): Regionale Entwicklung der
Erwerbstatigkeit 1997 - 2004. Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und
Berufsforschung, Heft 4/1999, Nürnberg;
*author´s calculation; assumption: GDP-growth is as large as the growth of
productivity; this means that the number of employed people in the FRG will be
constant.
Dortmund has a much better perspective than Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen and Hagen.
But in absolute terms it is still negative and also in relative terms in comparison with
the neighbouring regions like Münster; Lüdenscheid and Soest.
Also a new special analysis of the University of Dortmund about the past and the
provided future of the economic structure and activity levels of the city of Dortmund
(Bade et al., 2002) describes very clearly that ceteris paribus the city of Dortmund
will not be able to compensate the deep negative effects of the regional crisis by
means of its own activities, although its economic development strategy is very
ambitious and managed in a professional way (see chapter II).
From 1976 to 2000 in the city of Dortmund the number of the employed persons was
reduced by 13.5%. Only in the years 1985-1991 and in the year 2000 did the amount
of employed people grow. In the region Dortmund, Unna, Hamm, which includes the
main sub-urbanisation areas of the city of Dortmund, this number fell by about 3%
(Bade 2002, 9; see figure 7, appendix). The development of the employed people in
Dortmund in comparison to selected large cities (Bade, 2002, 9) and the relative
development of employed people in Dortmund in comparison to the development of