period. In the early 1950s New York City, London and Tokyo had populations of
around 8 million at the time, while the populations of large cities in the South such as
Buenos Aires, Sâo Paulo, Mexico City, and Cairo varied between 1.5 and 5 million
(Merriam, 1962). Since then, the world’s gravity point in mega city development has
shifted dramatically towards the developing world. In 1984, thirty-four cities had
populations greater than five million, only nine of them were cities in the developed
world (Fox, 1984). Of all the people who lived in cities with populations greater than
5 million in 1950, more than 50 per cent were Europeans and Americans. Today, less
than a quarter of the people in such cities are from those regions, and it is expected
that this percentage will decrease to around 10 per cent over the next decade. South
America and Asia, especially India, China and parts of the Pacific Rim are all
experiencing urban explosions, and based on the current low levels of urbanization in
low-income countries, especially Africa (see Tables 1 and 2) there is a great potential
that this explosion of the urban South could continue well into the twenty first
century.
Table 1 Population and urban growth in Africa
|
Total pop(mil.) 1980(1990)2000 |
Av/ann/grwth |
Urban pop |
Av/ann/grwth | |
|
Sub-Sahara |
380.7(508.3)659.8 |
2.9(2.9)2.7 |
23.0(28.1)34.5 |
5.0(5.0)4.8 |
|
North |
88.4(114.1)138.0 |
2.6(2.6)2.0 |
44.6(49.2)53.9 |
3.5(3.6)2.9 |
|
All__________ |
469.1(622.4)797.8 |
2.8(2.9)2.6 |
27.1(32.o)37.9 |
4.5(4.6)4.3 |
(World Bank, 2002)
Table 2 Urban population growth in global regions
|
Countries |
Pop |
Pop |
Pop |
Urban Pop |
% Pop in |
% Pop in |
|
1980 |
1998 |
Growth |
% of total |
prim city |
cities>1m. | |
|
(mil.) |
(mil.) 80-98(98-2015) |
70(80)98 |
80(95) |
80(95)15 | ||
|
Low income |
2,527 |
3,536 |
1.9(1.3) |
18(22)30 |
13(13) |
7(10)13 |
|
Middle income 1,114 |
1,474 |
1.6(1.0) |
49(56)65 |
22(21) |
18(22)24 | |
|
High income |
789 |
886 |
0.6(0.3) |
73(75)77 |
17(17) |
3o(32)33 |
|
E Asia/Pacific |
1,398 |
1,817 |
1.5(0.8) |
19(22)34 |
12(9) |
9(12)15 |
|
C/E Eur C Asia |
426 |
475 |
0.6(0.1) |
52(59)66 |
15(15) |
14(16)18 |
|
L Amr. / Carib |
360 |
502 |
1.8(1.3) |
57(65)75 |
27(25) |
24(28)28 |
|
N Afr / M East |
174 |
286 |
2.8(1.8) |
41(48)57 |
31(27) |
17(21)24 |
|
S Asia |
903 |
1,305 |
2.0(1.5) |
19(22)28 |
9(11) |
6(10)13 |
|
S-Sahara |
381 |
627 |
2.8(2.2) |
19(23)33 |
28(29) |
5(8)12 |
(World Bank, 2000)
However, the economic growth in the South had not been nearly as dramatic as the
population shift over the same period. Low-income economies are still largely
agricultural driven and their per capita income have remained low (Table 3). In fact,
apart from cities that are very well endowed by natural resources, such as cities near
oil fields in the Middle East, only the economies of a relatively small number of cities