14
Table 4. Hypothetical visitation patterns by scenario. Percentage of the sample who...
|
Description |
Scenario 1: |
Scenario 2: |
Scenario 3: |
|
.would visit more often if the program |
46.11 |
48.80 |
47.90 |
|
..would visit more often if the program |
29.88 |
28.92 |
27.88 |
One concern we had when we drafted the survey questionnaire was that people
would not accept the hypothetical scenario and the contingent behavior questions.
Fortunately, interviewer debriefs suggest that virtually everyone (97.6 percent of the
sample) was comfortable with the hypothetical program and the related questions. Over
95 percent of the respondents appeared to answer the questions in an honest and truthful
manner.
5. The Travel Cost Model.
We use the actual trips to the site in the last 12 months and the trips per year the
respondent expects to make if the program is implemented to fit single-site travel cost
models. These models allow us to estimate (i) the surplus associated with visits at the
current conditions, plus (ii) the welfare change associated with the program.
A. The Single-site Model
In a single-site travel cost method (TCM) model, it is assumed that an individual’s
utility depends on aggregate consumption, X, leisure, L and trips r to the site:
(1)
U = U(X,L,r) .
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