THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURE



From these facts, we cannot be sure that agriculture will become
just a stage of production in an industrialized, vertically integrated
food and fiber system. Agriculture may continue as a separate in-
dustry in large measure, buying inputs from unaffiliated firms, selling
ouputs to unaffiliated firms. Technological progress may have to be
financed from profits generated in agriculture, or not be installed.
The years between 1969 and 2000 may be critical ones in this re-
spect, but facts presently available to us permit no final conclusion.

Policies-To What End?

Our conclusion, then, is that the structure of agriculture in 1980
or 2000 or any other future period cannot be forecast with precision.
If we knew with certainty what structure our citizens would like to
see emerge, then policy variables can be manipulated to yield such
a structure. In the absence of such knowledge, we must be tolerant
of diverse views, but we cannot be tolerant of proposed actions which
put our future food supply in jeopardy. Society’s actions over our
whole history establish clearly its concern with adequate food sup-
plies at reasonable prices.

COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE’S DUAL SITUATION

There has been a spate of self-recrimination among professionals
serving the public’s interest in agriculture over the present dual situ-
ation in agriculture. We find it hard to understand this phenomenon.

It seems clear to us that we agricultural economists are not yet
able to specify ideal policies for achievement of all the goals our so-
ciety might have set for itself. These goals may conflict. We can shift
from one broad set of policy variables affecting the prices of prod-
ucts and factors to another broad set affecting income transfers. But
different goals require differing mixes. Goals of efficiency may re-
spond to price variables; income redistributions are a side product.
If we shift to direct income transfers, income distributions may re-
spond, but what are the side effects on efficiency?

Perhaps complete equality of income distribution, or even aboli-
tion of poverty in our economy, is an impossible goal. Some policy
makers appear poised nonetheless to attempt the achievement of the
latter goal. It behooves agricultural economists and other social sci-
entists serving agriculture to be sure that impoverished people in
rural areas are not exempted for lack of information from equal con-
sideration when those policies are being devised. We should get our
research under way now, not after the policies have been put into
effect. The efforts of the President’s National Advisory Commission

107



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