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attainment, with female attainment surpassing that of males in some countries
(Shavit and Blossfeld, 1993). In spite of such large-scale educational expansion,
there has been a remarkable consistency in the relationship between social
background and inequality in educational outcomes (Shavit and Blossfeld, 1993;
Breen and Whelan, 1996). Among countries for which comparable data are
available, only Sweden and the Netherlands have shown any consistent tendency
towards increased equality of educational participation between the different
social classes3 (De Graaf and Ganzeboom, 1993; Jonsson, 1993).
A reduction in inequality in educational participation can generally be
attributed to one of two processes.4 First, such changes may result from a
reduction in social class differences in income and life-chances, thus leading to
a change in the relative costs attached to educational participation for working-
class and middle-class families. Sweden can be regarded as an example of this
effect. It has been argued that changes over time in educational inequality in
Sweden can be attributed to diminishing social class differences in economic
security (through increased equality in income and living conditions) in the
context of an educational system which maximises educational choice by
postponing the timing of educational selection (Erikson, 1996). In contrast, the
lack of change in other countries has been attributed to persistent inequalities
between social class groups in financial and cultural resources, along with
continuing differences in the perceived benefits and success rates associated
with educational participation (Erikson and Jonsson, 1996). Ireland can be seen
as an example of the latter case since, if anything, the dispersion of earnings
has increased in recent years (see Barrett et al., 1997).
Second, in the absence of significant changes in the distribution of economic
and cultural resources, it has been argued that educational inequality will only
decrease when the demand for education among the upper middle classes has
been saturated (Raftery and Hout, 1993). Thus, inequalities in the transition
from primary to secondary education among males in Ireland were found to
have diminished as demand for education at this level by the upper middle
classes was saturated. Given the recent expansion in those completing lower
second-level education (or junior cycle), it could be argued that such a saturation
in demand would be evident among the very youngest cohorts. This hypothesis
is tested in the following sections of the paper.
3. Recent evidence suggests some tendency towards an equalisation of educational opportunity
in Germany, albeit with a higher level of inequality than in Sweden or the Netherlands (Erikson
and Jonsson, 1996). In addition, there is some evidence of a decline in inequality of educational
outcomes in Scotland during the early 1980s (Gamoran, 1996; Paterson, 1997).
4. An alternative hypothesis, that of the liberal theorists, proposes that processes of modernisation
will automatically lead to a diminution in inequality; for a refutation of this theory in the Irish
context, see Breen and Whelan (1996).