Modelling the Effects of Public Support to Small Firms in the UK - Paradise Gained?



Modelling the Effects of Public Support to Small Firms in the UK - paradise Gained?

Table 3: Probit Models for the Probability of Receiving BL Assistance

Equation 1            Equation 2           Equation 3

Coeff.

T-stat

Coeff.

T-stat

Coeff.

T-stat

Constant____________________

-1.0538**

-2.52

-1.0795**

-2.50

-1.0066**

-3.49

Firm Characteristics________

Partnership___________________

0.2417

1.09

0.0545

0.22

Employment in 1996________

-0.0026

-1.05

-0.0030

-1.15

-0.0034

-1.26

Turnover Growth 94-96_____

-0.0087

-0.08

Employment Growth 94-96

-0.0277

-0.25

Business Age (yrs)___________

0.0076

0.57

0.0039

0.29

Informational Variables
(i.e., How business found
out about BL)_____________

Other BL clients_____________

0.4126**

2.12

0.3778*

1.90

0.2998*

1.68

Mailshots from BL__________

0.0580

0.30

0.0892

0.45

Direct Contact from BL______

0.8223**

4.53

0.8550**

4.52

0.7879**

5.10

BL Advertising_____________

-0.1411

-0.73

-0.2281

-1.14

Media articles on BL________

-0.0299

-0.15

-0.0526

-0.26

Directed to BL______________

-0.1553

-0.77

-0.1320

-0.64

O-M Characteristics________

Founder in Firm____________

-0.1203

-0.61

-0.1158

-0.59

O-M has significant equity in
the business___________________

0.0880

0.40

0.0708

0.32

0.1686

0.86

O-M shares power with
others_________________________

0.4337**

2.44

0.4642**

2.53

0.4244**

2.53

O-M Qualifications -
Apprenticeship or below_____

0.3499*

1.71

0.4363**

2.03

0.3426*

1.77

O-M Qualifications -
Graduate___________________

0.1888

0.93

0.2913

1.41

0.2056

1.07

O-M Age 20-30___________

0.8389

1.00

O-M Age 40-50___________

0.2193

1.28

0.2696

1.53

0.1904

1.19

Large/Small Firm

Experience.__________________

-0.2152

-1.60

-0.1563

-1.13

-0.2300*

-1.82

Number of observations______

290

274

310

Chi Square (9-18)____________

49.70

46.83

48.46

% Correct Predictions________

68.6

67.8

67.4

Log Likelihood_____________

-172.16

-162.95

-186.59

Restricted Log Likelihood

-197.02

-186.37

-210.82

Notes: The dependent variable in each Probit model is a 0/1 variable. O indicates that the firm did not
receive BL assistance (i.e. controls); 1 indicates that the firm did receive BL assistance (i.e.
actions). Statistically significant variables are denoted as follows: ** denotes variables
significant at the 5 per cent level; * denotes significance at 10 per cent.

Stephen Roper and Mark Hart

15




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