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current system, but then the economics of it all have, as I have indicated, consistently
remained outside the focus of everyone but Board finance officers. This is an area of
research which is crying out for serious investigation.
Since AQA has always been, in the words of one of its competitors “a very public
service institution" (0CR2 2003), it might adjust relatively painlessly to such a
change. The other two boards could then opt in to provide the qualifications that
appealed to them, while conducting their principal business in the global market.
In this scenario, then, the future shape of English qualifications providers is likely to
be determined by economic rather than educational factors. However the possibility of
what would be virtually a single national examining board has major implications for
secondary teachers, who work within a strong culture of choice from a range of
providers. Not only would they lose such choice, but innovation, already greatly
reduced because of the high degree of central control, would become entirely the
preserve of the regulator. Yet, as the September 2002 grades crisis proved, the
regulator is not necessarily well versed in the finer points of assessment.
If this path were to be followed, I believe there would be other crises before English
qualifications reach a calm plateau.
Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Professional and political pragmatism
I base my more positive assessment of future developments on the view that the
events of September 2002 demonstrated to the regulator - and to the DfES and its
political masters as well - that assessment is a complex process. Whatever else the