Ex post analysis of the regional impacts of major infrastructure: the Channel Tunnel 10 years on.



tunnel infrastructure; and has tunnel related traffic had a differential impact on the
local economy from a similar volume of ferry traffic?

The paper examines the volume and structure of traffic and compares these with ex
ante traffic forecasts; trends in the local labour markets in terms of the growth of job
opportunities, occupational structure and the evolution of unemployment; investment
(including foreign investment) in the regional economy; and the development and
execution of plans for physical development in the region. The paper concludes that
although much has changed in the region following the completion of the tunnel, it is
difficult to identify a significant difference in the aggregate performance relative to
the wider regional and national experiences. Essentially, the improvement of transport
infrastructure has enabled the regions to be more integrated into their wider regions
and experience a similar economic performance, but whether this has led to a better
performance is more difficult to determine.

2. Background and methodology

2.1 Background and approach

Assessing and evaluating the wider impacts which can be attributed to new transport
infrastructure or improved transport services poses many problems. Even where such
changes are large and provide possible connections which did not hitherto exist it
cannot be automatically assumed that there will be more than minor impacts. Whilst
ex ante analysis of such projects has been problematic, there has been little or no
development of ex post studies to assess what the impacts have been. The tenth
anniversary of the tunnel’s opening provides a useful opportunity to reflect on the
changes which have happened, assess the determinants of these changes and explore
what future changes may occur. This is not just as a check on the accuracy of previous
forecasts, but also as means of understanding where supporting policies and actions
have been beneficial, or could have been more effective, and where such policies
could be improved in the future.

The decision to construct the Channel Tunnel, raised many questions of the impacts
on the neighbouring regions of Kent and Nord-Pas de Calais, on the UK and France
more generally and indeed on the European Union as a whole (see Holliday et al,
1991 for a full discussion). A large number of studies were carried out in the period
between the announcement of construction and the completion of the tunnel and its
opening for service in 1994. These showed a variety of possible impacts, but the
common consensus was that the impacts on the immediate regions would be limited
since they would suffer from the potential loss of employment in the competing port
and ferry services and from the reduced need for services to support traffic
transferring onto such services. There would be direct benefits from the creation of
the new services, but often these may be expected to accrue more to locations more
distant from the tunnel. There could also be indirect and induced benefits arising from
both the objective improvements in accessibility and the perceived improvement in
the relative locations of the adjacent regions which could be seen as less remote and
peripheral.

Undertaking a study of ex post impacts is however just as fraught as an ex ante study.
Although it is possible to document the changes which have happened since the



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