and violence that had a severe negative impact on private sector activity.15 Table 5
suggests that the impact of SPD 94-99 on the level of aggregate GDP rose to just
above 1.75 percent by the year 1996, but that the positive impact on the level of GDP
declined almost to zero after 2001. The impact on reducing the unemployment rate
was modest, peaking at a reduction of just over 0.7 percentage points in the year 1996,
but declining to almost zero after 2001.
Table 5 Structural Funds 94-99 impacts on GDP (GDPE) and unemployment
(UR)
|
East Germany_______________ |
Northern Ireland________________ | |||
|
GDPE |
UR_______ |
GDPE______ |
UR_______ | |
|
1993 |
0____________ |
_0_____________ |
_0_____________ |
_0_____________ |
|
1994 |
2.75___________ |
-1.89_____________ |
1.09_____________ |
-0.41_____________ |
|
1995 |
2.85___________ |
-1.85_____________ |
1.27_____________ |
-0.51_____________ |
|
1996 |
2.92__________ |
-1.76_____________ |
1.77______________ |
-0.71_____________ |
|
1997 |
3.24__________ |
-1.73_____________ |
1.59_____________ |
-0.57____________ |
|
1998 |
3.71___________ |
-1.49_____________ |
1.34_____________ |
-0.43_____________ |
|
1999 |
3.95___________ |
-1.32_____________ |
1.27_____________ |
-0.39____________ |
|
2000 |
1.51____________ |
+0.67__________ | ||
|
2005 |
2.76__________ |
+1.26__________ |
0.18 |
+0.04 |
|
2010 |
4.68__________ |
+1.74__________ |
0.12____________ |
+0.04__________ |
*For Northern Ireland the CSF 1994-1999 expenditures terminated after the year 2001.
The cumulative multiplier (defined previously) is shown in Table 6 for the years
1994-1999, 1994-2002 and 1994-2010 for Structural Funds 94-99. These are among
the highest cumulative multipliers of the six economies that we have modelled using
HERMIN. This appears to fly in the face of the stalled convergence of East Germany
that is apparent when aggregate data on macro-economic performance is examined for
the period 1994-1999. The problem here is probably more associated with the poor
performance of the economy of the former West Germany than with any failure in the
East German Structural Funds. Although the HERMIN analysis suggests that the
Structural Funds impacts on the East German regions were large and positive, the
negative effects from the external economy (mainly West Germany) have probably
dominated the positive Structural Funds impacts and so the aggregate performance as
observed in the historical data is quite weak. This serves to emphasise the fact that
15 The first “cease fires” of the main paramilitary organisations were announced in 1994, subsequently
broke down, and were reinstated. The Belfast Agreement that eventually led to devolved government
only came at the end of the period of Structural Funds/SPD 94-99. So the political context of
Structural Funds /SPD 94-99 in Northern Ireland continued to be one of uncertainty and evolution.
23