Table 3. Certainty Equivalent Discount Rates
|
Year/ Model |
AR(4) |
Regime Switching |
State |
|
3.50 |
3.50 |
3.50 | |
|
20 |
3.68 |
3.35 |
2.22 |
|
40 |
3.58 |
3.31 |
2.02 |
|
60 |
3.52 |
3.28 |
1.87 |
|
80 |
3.48 |
3.25 |
1.76 |
|
100 |
3.43 |
3.22 |
1.68 |
|
150 |
3.33 |
3.14 |
1.57 |
|
200 |
3.13 |
3.05 |
1.51 |
|
250 |
2.77 |
2.93 |
1.47 |
|
300 |
2.17 |
2.75 |
1.45 |
|
350 |
1.12 |
2.45 |
1.43 |
|
400_________ |
0.39 |
2.14 |
1.44 |
Table 4. Average MSFEs
|
Model Criterion |
AR(4) |
Regime Switching |
State |
|
AMSFE |
2.330 |
1.486 |
0.195 |
|
AMSFE (B) |
0.875 |
0.527 |
0.135 |
|
AMSFE (P) |
0.562 |
0.332 |
0.132 |
|
AMSFE (QS) |
0.659 |
0.407 |
0.071 |
|
AMSFE (TH) |
0.818 |
0.480 |
0.137 |
Notes: The weighting functions are as follows: Bartlett(B), Parzen(P), Quadratic-Spectral
(QS) and Tukey-Hanning (TH).
Table 5: Value of Carbon Damages
|
Model__________ |
Carbon Values |
Relative to Constant Rate |
|
Constant (3.5%) |
535 |
— |
|
AR(4) |
5.78 |
7.9% |
|
Regime Switching |
6.21 |
16.1% |
|
State Space |
16.73 |
212.6% |
Table 6: The Costs and Benefits of Nuclear Build in the UK
|
(£/KW) |
CAPEX |
OPEX |
DECOM |
Rev/es |
C C |
NPV |
Relative to 3.5% |
|
3.5% |
2173 |
2336 |
427 |
4062 |
228 |
-646 |
— |
|
AR(4) |
2167 |
2245 |
396 |
3904 |
215 |
-689 |
-6.6% |
|
RS |
2178 |
2401 |
479 |
4176 |
249 |
-633 |
8.0% |
|
SS |
2196 |
2973 |
1126 |
5170 |
547 |
-577 |
8.9% |