Education and Development: The Issues and the Evidence

Urbanisation in the developing world is changing the nature of the educational
challenge that confronts developing countries. In 1991 a majority (48%) of the
populations of medium human development countries lived in urban areas (excluding
China). Only in the lowest human development countries were rural populations
predominant (71% excluding India) (UNDP 1992:136). Poverty is endemic in many of
these urban areas and is often comparable to that in rural areas. Table 4 shows how
urban populations are likely to grow.

It is striking that cities often produce high proportions of countries GDP. Estimates
made in the early 1980's suggested that Lima in Peru, with 27% of total population was
responsible for 43 % of GDP Manila with 13 % of the population accounted for 33%,
Lagos with 5% of the population produced 57% of the value added by manufacturing,
and Port Au Prince in Haiti with 14% of the population generated 40% of national
income (UNDP 1990:86). These figures may have overstated the importance of cities to
national economies since much rural production may not be traded. However since
these estimates were made urbanisation has continued rapidly and the economic
polarisation implied by these estimates has probably increased. In 1960 there were only
three cities with a population of more than 10 million in the developing world, by 2000
there are likely to be at least 18. There were only 9 cities with a population of more
than 4 million in 1960 in the developing world, by 2000 there are likely to be 50
(UNDP 1990:86).

Table 4 Rate of Increase in Urban Population 1985-2000

Source: UNDP 1990:87 Table 5.1

Both because urbanisation means that increasing proportions of the population are
urban and because many of these urban dwellers are poor, shifts are implied by

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