Empirically Analyzing the Impacts of U.S. Export Credit Programs on U.S. Agricultural Export Competitiveness



under the GSM 103 and SCGP programs, we limit our focus to the impact of GSM 102
export credit programs on US wheat import demand in seven importing countries: Egypt,
Korea, Mexico, Algeria , Turkey, Jordon and Indonesia. Data on the quantity and value
of wheat imported by these countries from the Unites States and the World were obtained
from the United Nations’ Comtrade database. Quantity and value of wheat imports by
the importing countries from the rest of the world (ROW) were calculated as the
difference between total wheat imports from the world and US. Import price of US (US
price) wheat was calculated by dividing value of wheat imports from the US by quantity.
Import price of wheat imported from the world (world price) was calculated in a similar
manner. The import price of wheat from the ROW was calculated as the difference
between world price and the US price. Data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the
importing countries, consumer price index and interest rates of the importing countries,
and the exchange rate between the United States and the importing countries were
obtained from the International Financial Statistics (IFS) of the International Monetary
Fund. Domestic production of wheat in the importing countries were obtained from the
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO). Finally data on the
amount of export credits under the GSM-102 program and the specified repayment
periods (which were later converted into cost savings-see appendix 1 for details) given by
the United States to the importing countries were collected from the Foreign Agricultural
Trade of the United States (FATUS) various fiscal year end issues. All data used in this
study are annual data for the time period 1994-2004. All prices, import value of wheat,
GDP and cost savings were converted into real values by dividing by the corresponding
CPI of the importing countries.

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