Bridging Micro- and Macro-Analyses of the EU Sugar Program: Methods and Insights



present version, the GE model is still calibrated for the year 1995 and we construct this baseline
scenario as a pre-experiment simulation, updating the relevant data, but using the original structure of
the matrix (input-output, etc.). Because the SAM does not include detailed information on the 10 new
members of the EU, we present only the results for the EU15. The EU10 are treated as foreign
countries within a free trade area. Some variables describing the macroeconomic environment are set
exogenously, using data from different institutions, including the Food and Agricultural Policy
Research Institute. Assumptions are also made about technical change in different sectors. We
assume, for example that Hicks neutral technical change results in a 1% reduction in unit costs in the
sugar sector, based on estimates for France (Sourie et al, 2005). Table 2 presents the baseline, given
the calibration of the cross-subsidization presented above. In brief, in the "baseline" column of
Table 2, the 2005 sugar reform is not implemented, export refunds are only limited by the Uruguay
Round agreement framework, and we assume that the EU does not face any additional constraint due
to the WTO dispute on export subsidies or to the Doha Round.

Table 2. EU15 sugar markets under the baseline, after the reform proposal and a ban of
export subsidies

Model
calibration

Baseline
(2010)

Impact of 2005
reform
(Scenario 1)

Total ban of export
subsidies
(Scenario 2)

Scenario 2 /
scenario 1

EU15 production of in quota
beets

99.570 mt

102.629 mt

92. 080 mt
(-10%)

83.651 mt
(-18%)

-9%

EU15 production of C beets

11.961 mt

8811 mt

0
(-100%)

0
(-100%)

-

EU15 production of in-quota
sugar

14.157 mt

14.592 mt

13. 092
(-10%)

11.894
(-18%)

-9%

EU15 production of C sugar

1.701 mt

1.293 mt

0
(-100%)

0
(-100%)

-

EU 15 imports of sugar*

1.950 mt

1.724 mt

1.724 mt
(0%)

1724 mt
(0%)

0%

EU15 exports of in quota
sugar*

2.888 mt

2.919 mt

1.238 mt
(-44%)

0
(-100%)

-100%

EU 15 consumption of sugar

12.863 mt

12.987 mt

13.171 mt
(+1%)

13.213 mt
(+1%)

0%

Domestic price of in quota
beets

50€/t

46€/t

22 €/t
(-52%)

16 €/t
(-65%)

-27%

Domestic price of C beets

22 €/t

11 €/t      '

-

-

-

Domestic price of in quota
sugar

687 €/t

632 €/t

404 €/t
(-36%)

360 €/t
(-43%)

-11%

Export price (white sugar)

306 €/t

221 €/t

261 €/t
(+18%)

277€/t
(+25%)

+6%

Export subsidies

1 311 mn€

1 200 mn€

178 mn€
(-85%)

0
(-100%)

-100%

Rents (sector)

1 749 mn €
(beet)

1 119 mn
(sugar)

2203 mn €
(beet)
300 mn
(sugar)

464 mn € (beet)
0 mn (sugar)

0
(-100%)

-100%

Cross subsidy
(beets)
(sugar)

55 mn €

128 mn €

63 mn €

141 mn €

-

-

-

* outside EU10.. Source: simulations by the authors.

16



More intriguing information

1. EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES IN TENNESSEE ON WATER USE AND CONTROL - AGRICULTURAL PHASES
2. The name is absent
3. WP 92 - An overview of women's work and employment in Azerbaijan
4. The name is absent
5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES
6. The name is absent
7. GOVERNANÇA E MECANISMOS DE CONTROLE SOCIAL EM REDES ORGANIZACIONAIS
8. ANTI-COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL CONTRACTING: THE DESIGN OF FINANCIAL CLAIMS.
9. Effects of a Sport Education Intervention on Students’ Motivational Responses in Physical Education
10. New urban settlements in Belarus: some trends and changes
11. The name is absent
12. Word searches: on the use of verbal and non-verbal resources during classroom talk
13. A Unified Model For Developmental Robotics
14. Bargaining Power and Equilibrium Consumption
15. Globalization and the benefits of trade
16. An Intertemporal Benchmark Model for Turkey’s Current Account
17. News Not Noise: Socially Aware Information Filtering
18. The name is absent
19. PERFORMANCE PREMISES FOR HUMAN RESOURCES FROM PUBLIC HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS IN ROMANIA
20. MATHEMATICS AS AN EXACT AND PRECISE LANGUAGE OF NATURE