Three Strikes and You.re Out: Reply to Cooper and Willis



Table 2: Estimation with Inferred Static Gap: Macroeconomic Data

Data

Driving force ρ (annual)

Increase in R2

BLS, as in CE (1993)

0.13

Sim. Quadr. Adj.

1.00

0.00

Sim. Quadr. Adj.,

0.75a

0.01

Sim. Quadr. Adj. as in CW (2001)

0.47

0.03

Sim. Quadr. Adj., as in CW (2004)

____________0.28____________

0.05

‘Increase in R2’ denotes the difference between the R2 obtained when estimating a model with a non-
constant hazard and the
R2 when imposing a constant hazard, in both cases using the methodology in CE
(1993). ‘Sim. Quadr. Adj.’ stands for ‘Simulated Quadratic Adjustment’.

aThis value of ρ is somewhat below both the value in the driving force used in CE and the values used when
calibrating RBC models (see Cooley and Prescott, 1995).

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