Abstract
This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation
analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is
defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a factor model of
returns as theoretical framework, we nest leading contributions in the literature as special cases of our test.
We show that, while the literature on correlation analysis of contagion is successful in controlling for a
potential bias induced by changes in the variance of global shocks, current tests are conditional on a specific
yet arbitrary assumption about the variance of country specific shocks. Our results suggest that, for a
number of pairs of country stock markets, the hypothesis of ‘no contagion’ can be rejected only if the
variance of country specific shocks is set to levels that are not consistent with the evidence.
Keywords: Contagion, financial crisis, correlation analysis.
JEL classification: F30, C10, G10, G15
More intriguing information
1. THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURE2. Food Prices and Overweight Patterns in Italy
3. Mergers under endogenous minimum quality standard: a note
4. The name is absent
5. The Effects of Reforming the Chinese Dual-Track Price System
6. Non-farm businesses local economic integration level: the case of six Portuguese small and medium-sized Markettowns• - a sector approach
7. The name is absent
8. The economic doctrines in the wine trade and wine production sectors: the case of Bastiat and the Port wine sector: 1850-1908
9. A Computational Model of Children's Semantic Memory
10. On the origin of the cumulative semantic inhibition effect