Table 1 - Economic Indicators
|
Realized | ||||
|
π |
∆y |
∆e |
Selic | |
|
2000 |
5.97 |
4.4 |
9.3 |
15.84 |
|
2001 |
7.67 |
1.4 |
18.7 |
19.05 |
|
2002 |
12.53 |
1.5 |
52.3 |
24.90 |
|
Unanticipated | ||||
|
π |
∆y |
∆e |
Selic | |
|
2000 |
-1.03 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
-0.81 |
|
2001 |
3.37 |
-2.6 |
16.4 |
5.05 |
|
2002 |
7.73 |
-0.9 |
26.0 |
7.90 |
Notes: IPCA inflation, US dollar exchange-rate depreciation,
end-of-period Selic rate
Table 2 - Covariances from Survey of Expectations
|
Cov(yi)/Var(i) |
-0.24 |
Cov(iπ)/Var(i) |
0.89 |
|
Cov(ye)/V ar (e) |
-0.07 |
Cov(eπ)/V ar(e) |
0.27 |
|
Cov(yπ)/V ar(π) |
-0.24 |
Cov(eπ)/V ar(π) |
3.55 |
|
Var(i) |
0.30 |
Cov(ie)∕Var(i) |
3.25 |
|
Vαr(e) |
3.15 |
Cov(ie)/V ar (e) |
0.30 |
|
Var(π) |
0.24 ~~ |
Cov(iπ)/V ar(π) |
1.09 ~ |
Notes: Variances are multiplied by 100.
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