Gerontocracy in Motion? – European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing



26


Michael Fertig and Christoph M. Schmidt

Table 3

Probability to be Employed

Probit Estimation Results - Dependent Variable: Employed (yes/no)

Variable

Complete sample

Restricted sample-Men

marginal effect

t-value

marginal effect

t-value

Individual characteristics

Age (at 24)1

0.1175

39.29

0.1391

30.99

Age (at 40)1

0.0105

9.63

0.0122

6.99

Age (at 60)1

-0.1468

-30.85

-0.1605

-24.41

Female

-0.2690

-80.80

-

-

Medium education

-0.1294

-24.04

-0.0702

-10.47

Low Education

-0.1782

-35.45

-0.0509

-8.14

Disability

-0.1721

-38.21

-0.2287

-39.19

Variables measuring demographic change

Relative own cohort size
(at sample mean, %)1

0.0410

5.80

0.0382

3.55

Share of highly educated
in own cohort (%)

0.0022

8.16

0.1925

6.08

Country indicators (base category is UK)

Germany

0.0923

6.77

0.0739

4.79

Denmark

0.1678

12.42

0.0946

6.06

The Netherlands

0.0919

5.71

0.0885

5.07

Belgium

-0.0207

-1.59

-0.0198

-1.22

France

0.0071

0.55

-0.0244

-1.57

Ireland

0.0543

3.62

0.0818

5.05

Italy

-0.0436

-2.58

-0.0214

-1.07

Greece

0.0022

0.14

0.0689

4.08

Spain

-0.0730

-5.26

-0.0090

-0.55

Portugal

0.1639

10.86

0.1215

7.45

Austria

0.1187

7.18

0.1033

5.89

Finland

0.0960

7.91

0.0408

2.81

Sweden

0.1415

11.49

0.0714

4.98

Diagnostics:

Pseudo R-squared                      0.21                          0.26

Number of observations                98,568                        48,172

1Specification contains the variable and its square. - For a description of the variables see

RWI

Table 4 (Appendix).

ESSEN

For each of our explanatory variables we report marginal effects and their as-
sociated t-values. The marginal effects can be interpreted straightforwardly as
the percentage-point change in the probability to be regularly employed in re-
sponse to a unit-change in the respective explanatory variable, holding all
other explanatory variables, including indicator variables, at their mean val-
ues4. The associated t-values provide an assessment of the statistical reliability

4 For the continuous regressors, such as cohort size or age, a unit-change is a percentage point or a
year, respectively. For indicator variables, the corresponding unit-change is the hypothetical
switch from zero to one.



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