Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?



Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut

für Wirtschaftsforschung

Board of Directors:

Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt, Ph.D. (President),

Prof. Dr. Thomas K. Bauer

Prof. Dr. Wim Kosters

Governing Board:

Dr. Eberhard Heinke (Chairman);

Dr. Dietmar Kuhnt, Dr. Henning Osthues-Albrecht, Reinhold Schulte

(Vice Chairmen);

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Ameling, Manfred Breuer, Christoph Danzer-Vanotti,
Dr. Hans Georg Fabritius, Prof. Dr. Harald B. Giesel, Dr. Thomas Koster, Heinz
Krommen, Tillmann Neinhaus, Dr. Torsten Schmidt, Dr. Gerd Willamowski

Advisory Board:

Prof. David Card, Ph.D., Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest, Prof. Dr. Walter Kramer,

Prof. Dr. Michael Lechner, Prof. Dr. Till Requate, Prof. Nina Smith, Ph.D.,

Prof. Dr. Harald Uhlig, Prof. Dr. Josef Zweimüller

Honorary Members of RWI Essen

Heinrich Frommknecht, Prof. Dr. Paul Klemmer t

RWI : Discussion Papers

No. 51

Published by Rheinisch-Westfalisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung,
Hohenzollernstrasse 1/3, D-45128 Essen, Phone +49 (0) 201/81 49-0

All rights reserved. Essen, Germany, 2006

Editor: Prof. Dr. Christoph M. Schmidt, Ph.D.

ISSN 1612-3565 - ISBN 3-936454-78-7

ISBN-13 978-3-936454-78-9

The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress
circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed
represent exclusively the authors’ own opinions and do not necessarily
reflect those of the RWI Essen.



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