Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries

Figure 1: Development in global liquidity since 1984

HPI

.06

.05

.04

.03

.02

.01

.00 ......................

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

IS

.06

.05

.04

.03

.02

.01

.00.......................

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

M

.12

.10

.08

.06

.04

.02

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

:tz

⁰Azⁿ.............»..............

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

MSW

.6

.4

.2

.0

-.2

-.4 ......................

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Figure 2: Global series, 4-quarter moving average of growth rates (except interest
rate series), 1984Q1 - 2006Q4

13

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