Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries





Figure 1: Development in global liquidity since 1984

HPI


.06

.05

.04

.03

.02

.01

.00    ......................

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

IS


.06

.05

.04

.03

.02

.01

.00.......................

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

M

.12

.10

.08

.06

.04

.02

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

:tz

0Azn
.............»..............

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

MSW


.6

.4

.2

.0

-.2

-.4    ......................

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Figure 2: Global series, 4-quarter moving average of growth rates (except interest
rate series), 1984Q1 - 2006Q4

13



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