The name is absent



Van Gool & Bridges

TABLE 13: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: ADVERSE SELECTION AND LENGTH OF

INTERVENTION (WITH 70% TAKE-UP RATE AMONGST GPs)

SCENARIO 1

50%
EFFECTIVE

SCENARIO 2
70%
EFFECTIVE

SCENARIO 3
90%
EFFECTIVE

Years of effect

4

53

7^

Deaths prevented

71

135

221

Total costs

$5,936,000

$5,936,000

$5,936,000

Cost-effectiveness

$84,144

$43,873

$26,811

From the results in Table 13 it can be seen that the joint effects of adverse selection and
length of intervention (i.e. a minimum and maximum range of $84,144 to $26,811)
show the GP based intervention to be a high-risk strategy.

Summary of results

Incorporating the extended sensitivity analysis for the GP intervention (Table 13) along
with the length of effectiveness sensitivity analysis of the remaining interventions
(Table 10) the results are reported in table 14.

TABLE 14: SUMMARY OF CEA RESULTS

INTERVENTION

CEA RATIO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BOUNDS

GP Based

$43,873                        ($26,811, $84,144)

Community

Mass Media

$30,151                        ($21,338, $53,346)

$22,727                        ($15,152, $45,455)

HospitaVRehab

$23,054                        ($16,138, $40,345)

The least ‘risky’ intervention is the HospitalZRehab program closely followed by the
Mass Media and Community interventions. The GP intervention is perceived as the
most risky, which reflects the added uncertainty in GP participation rates. The next
section will provide more details on how these ‘risks’ can be interpreted and also how
they can be used.

33


Chere Project Report 11- November 1999



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