ON THE ANALYSIS OF LIBRARY GROWTH*
by H. L. Resnikoff and ]. L. Dolby
1. Introduction
The single most striking statistical fact about library holdings is
their rapid rate of growth. Whereas population growth in the
United States proceeds at rates less than 1.5 percent, all major
university libraries add at least 3 percent annually to their holdings
(which consequently double every 23 years), and the Universities
of Connecticut, Maryland, and Toronto are adding to their holdings
at a 10 percent annual rate (doubling in less than 8 years) (Ref.
3). Such rapid growth to an ever-increasing extent determines the
reaction to the collection of both library users and library manage-
ment. It creates and sustains an ever-present pressure against the
human, financial, and physical resources of the library, and limits
opportunities foi` increasing access to the information buried in
the growing archive.
In a previous study (Ref. 3) the nature and most obvious
implications of library growth were examined. There it was con-
cluded that for long periods, in some cases nearly 400 years, the
current exponential pattern of holdings growth has sustained itself,
subject only to local fluctuations representing the effect of major
historical phenomena, but always returning to the steady certainty
*This paper presents the substance of a lecture delivered by the first named
author for the rededication of the Fondren Library at Rice University in
April 1969. Both authors are pleased to acknowledge the support of Office
of Education Bureau of Research contract OEC-9-8-00292-0107, and to thank
the publishers who have kindly given their permission for the reproduction
of figures which first appeared in the indicated publications: Figure 3—re-
produced from Energy in the Future by P. Putnam, by permission of Van
Nostrand-Reinhold Company, a division of Litton Educational Publishing,
Inc., Litton Industries (Princeton, New Jersey, 1953) ; Figures 6 and 7—
reproduced from The Biology of Population Growth by Raymond Pearl, by
permission of Alfred A. Knopf, Inc. (New York, 1925) ; and Figure 12—
reproduced from Science Since Babylon by Derek J. de SolIa Price, by permis-
sion of Yale University Press (New Haven, Connecticut, 1961).
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