Temporary Work in Turbulent Times: The Swedish Experience

13

Table 3.2. Worker flows by origin and destination states (transition rates).

Notes: Figures in parentheses refer to the boom (1989-1990), figures in squared brackets to the slump (1993-1996).
Source: Labour force surveys, Statistics Sweden.

Transition rates pertaining to P, T, U and O are shown in Figure 3.5. Notice the broadly
parallel pro-cyclical evolution of UPR and OPR, i.e., transitions to permanent employment. The
former rate is more than three times larger than the latter, but the relative decline during the
downturn in the early 1990s is of the same order of magnitude. Both the unemployed and the
non-participants are much more likely to end up in temporary jobs than in permanent ones. A
comparison between TPR and UPR reveals an interesting pattern of initial co-movement and
subsequent divergence. Over the period 1988-1991, TPR and UPR are of similar magnitudes and
move fairly closely together. From 1992 and onwards, there is a widening gap between the two
transition rates. By the year 2000, TPR is twice as large as UPR. It appears thus to have become
increasingly difficult to make a transition from unemployment to permanent employment. In
contrast, transitions from temporary to permanent employment occur at roughly the same rates in
the year 2000 as a decade earlier.

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