SECTORAL SPECIALISATION IN THE EU: A
MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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3.3.2 Business cycle synchronisation:

sectoral origins

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3.4

3.5

Sectoral co-movements

Conclusion

1 THE RELEVANCE OF SECTORAL SPECIALISATION
FOR MONETARY POLICY

1.1 Introduction and motivation

1.2 The relevance of sectoral
specialisation for monetary policy

1.3 Economic integration and
sectoral specialisation

1.4 Sectoral determinants of
business cycle fluctuations

2 SECTORAL SPECIALISATION: CURRENT
SITUATION AND EVOLUTION

2.1 Sectoral specialisation in the euro
area and the EU

2.2 Sectoral re-allocation

2.3 Sectoral composition and
productivity

2.3.1 Sectoral labour productivity
developments

2.3.2 A shift-share analysis of
productivity

2.4 Europe in comparison with
the United States

2.5 Conclusion

3 SECTORAL COMPOSITION AND BUSINESS CYCLES

3.1 Sectoral determinants of the euro
area cycle

3.2 Sectoral volatility

3.2.1 Relative volatility and its
evolution over time

3.2.2 Relative volatility in
manufacturing

3.2.3 Sectoral composition and
aggregate volatility

3.3 Business cycle synchronisation
across EU countries: sectoral origins
3.3.1 Aggregate vs. sectoral business
cycle synchronisation

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4 ANNEXES

4.1 Annex 1: Data issues

4.1.1 Annual data

4.1.2 Short-term indicators

4.1.3 The computation of real value
indices

4.2 Annex 2: Methodology

4.2.1 Indicators for sectoral
specialisation and re-allocation
4.2.1.1 Sectoral specialisation
and concentration

4.2.1.2 Sectoral re-allocation
and the Lilien
indicator

4.2.1.3 The shift-share
analysis

4.2.2 Indicators for business cycle
analysis

4.2.2.1 Extracting business
cycle components

4.2.2.2 Sectoral decomposition
of aggregate volatility

4.2.2.3 Sectoral determinants
of business cycle
synchronisation

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ECB

Occasional Paper No. 19
July 2004

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