Phase 2: Emergence of a ‘full-time’ education and training system
(1987-1994)
The post-16 education and training system broke out of this static pattern in the late 1980s due to
the convergence of a range of factors, the most influential of which was the implementation of the
GCSE examination (Gray et al. 1993, Payne 1999). In the period 1987-1994, staying-on rates in
full-time education at 16 rose from 49 per cent to 72 per cent (DfEE 1999c). A similar dramatic
rise took place in the attainment rates at GCSE and A Level, though at about half the rate of
participation growth (Spours 1995). As Figure 1 shows, higher education participation tracked
this trend with the doubling of participation in higher education amongst the 18-21 year old age -
from about 15 per cent to over 30 per cent (NCIHE 1997). During the period in which the post-
16 education and training system moved decisively in the direction of full-time participation,
there was a rapid decline in the numbers of 16-19 year olds directly entering the youth labour -
from about 20 per cent to under 10 per cent (Steedman and Green 1997).
Phase 3: Post-16 education and training system slowdown (1995 - present)
By 1995, rapid rises in participation in full-time education among 16-19 year olds began to
plateau out, although at a higher level than in the mid-1980s. We will argue that this phase can
be described as ‘system slowdown’, due to the fact that the plateauing phenomenon which started
in the mid-1990s is now, to varying degrees, affecting participation and attainment indicators
across all aspects of education and training related to the 16-19 age group. This slowdown trend
includes the plateauing of participation in full-time education at 16, 17 and 18; the slowing of
growth in attainment at GCSE and A Level; the stubborn persistence of low successful
completion rates in broad vocational qualifications, such as GNVQ; the slowing of growth in
Modern Apprenticeships, together with unexpectedly poor completion rates and, very recently,
the plateauing of participation by 18 to 21 year olds in higher education. Before going on to look
at the necessary conditions for a phase of ‘system acceleration’, it is important to examine more
closely the dynamics of ‘system slowdown’, in order to evaluate its potential impact on future
education and training policy.
Dimensions of system slowdown
Participation in full-time education by 16-19 year olds
As Figure 1 shows, participation rates in full-time education at 16, 17 and 18 years have
plateaued in the mid-late 1990s. This trend first started at 16+ in 1994 and then spread to 17+
and 18+ by 1996. The 17+ full-time participation trend is particularly significant because it is an
important indication of those taking two-year advanced level qualifications and who are thus
eligible to enter higher education.