Orphanides and van Norden, 186, 187,
189, 191
output gap
error bounds, 204
estimates of, 185
measuring the uncertainty of, 191
production function approach, 186
reaction of the primary surplus to, 33
real-time estimation of, 186
uncertainty, 190
Pappa, 128
permanent balance rule, 18
Perotti, 128, 160
policy actions
non-systematic discretionary, 27
Ponzi financing schemes, 19
Portugal
deficit revisions in, 169
fiscal expansions and contractions,
145
fiscal policy responses, 136
general government balance of, 121
output gap, 123
reliability of fiscal data, 183
spending elasticities, 151
potential growth, 129
productivity shocks, 129
primary surplus
in EU15, 47
posterior distribution of, 42
primary surplus lag, 27
privatisations proceeds, 26
production function
parameters of, 204
public debt, 18
public finance
long-term sustainability, 129, 153
public finances
sustainability of, 119
Quandt-Andrews likelihood ratio test,
135
QUEST, 200
Quintos, 20
Ramey and Shapiro, 128
random walk, 105
Ravn and Uhlig, 123
Real Business Cycle models, 127
real discount rate, 77
Richardson, 63
S2 sustainability gap indicator, 95
Sarte, 134
semi-structural VAR, 128
shock multiplier, 200
short-horizon fiscal measure, 62
Sims et al., 134
simultaneity bias, 35
skewness, 127
Spain
fiscal expansions and contractions,
145
fiscal policy responses, 136
general government balance of, 121
output gap, 123
output gap estimates, 189
spending elasticities, 151
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), 11,
17, 59, 95, 99, 119, 126, 182
application of, 146
preventive arm, 11
revised, 11, 60, 115, 119, 129, 153,
165
Stock and Watson, 135
stock-flow adjustment (SFA), 24, 172
debt-specific, 164
deficit-specific, 164
structural balance
variation in, 133
structural breaks, 134
structural deficit, 132, 160
structural shocks, 160
structural VAR model, 126, 159
sustainability
ad hoc vs. model-based, 19
definition of, 19
sustainability condition, 40
sustainability conditions, 27
Sweden
reliability of fiscal data, 183
Swedish National Financial Authority,
63
Talvi and Vegh, 102
tax and expenditure rules, 116
223
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