Proceedings from the ECFIN Workshop "The budgetary implications of structural reforms" - Brussels, 2 December 2005



Table 6: Drivers of business confidence (dependent variable: change of standardized
business confidence, BUSCONFST)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

BCONFST (-1)

-0.95 (0.06)***

-0.97 (0.06)***

-0.98 (0.06)***

-0.96 (0.06)***

GROWTH

35.70 (4.71)***

31.80 (4.25)***

34.93 (4.37)***

45.08 (4.71)***

Δ UNEMPLOYMENT

-0.16 (0.10)

-0.24 (0.09)***

-0.20 (0.09)**

-0.13 (0.09)

INFLATION

-0.05 (0.03)

-0.05 (0.03)*

-0.04 (0.03)

-0.05 (0.03)*

NLGXQA

-0.011 (0.033)

-0.005 (0.03)

-0.002 (0.03)

0.009 (0.03)

Δ NLGXQA

-0.026 (0.052)

-0.04 (0.05)

-0.04 (0.05)

-0.04 (0.06)

δ Weolabour

2.74 (4.06)

-

-

-

δ weoproduct

-

2.95 (1.83)

-

-

δ weofinance

-

-

0.36 (0.57)

-

δ WEOTAX

-

-

-

9.22 (2.89)***

nb. of observations/nb.
countries

195/16

209/18

228/17

205/16

R-squared

0.66

0.66

0.64

0.69

Fixed effects, instrumental variable regression; instruments: age share below 14, fertility rate, openness, labour force
participation rate, unit labour costs, debt-GDP-level, election year dummy.

Table 7: Drivers of consumer confidence (dependent variable: change of standardized
consumer confidence - CCONFST)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

CCONFST (-1)

-0.53 (0.05)***

-0.53 (0.04)***

-0.52 (0.04)***

-0.55 (0.05)***

GROWTH

22.38 (2.90)***

21.32 (2.76)***

20.84 (2.72)***

22.80 (3.05)***

Δ UNEMPLOYMENT

0.02 (0.06)

-0.002 (0.06)

-0.01 (0.05)

-0.02 (0.06)

INFLATION

-0.05 (0.01)***

-0.04 (0.01)***

-0.04 (0.01)***

-0.04 (0.01)***

NLGXQA

0.02 (0.02)

0.01 (0.02)

0.03 (0.02)*

0.06 (0.02)***

Δ NLGXQA

-0.02 (0.03)

-0.02 (0.03)

-0.04 (0.03)

-0.08 (0.04)**

δ weolabour

0.78 (3.05)

-

-

-

δ weoproduct

-

1.15 (1.42)

-

-

δ weofinance

-

-

-0.33 (0.38)

-

δ weotax

-

-

-

0.23 (2.09)

nb. of observations/nb.
countries

276/18

291/19

309/18

300/17

R-squared

0.46

0.46

0.44

0.46

Fixed effects, instrumental variable regression; instruments: age share below 14, fertility rate, openness, labour force
participation rate, unit labour costs, debt-GDP-level, election year dummy.

157



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