New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates.



GR


US-Ger       US-UK       US-Japan

US/GE q ≥ 0

US/UK q ≥ 0

US/JP q ≥ 0

0      5      10     15 2 0     25 30     35 4 0 45     50 55     6 0

Months

0    5    10    15   20 a 3   3   40   45   5   »   60

Months


Grilli-Roub.


0      5      10     15     2 0    2 5     30     35     4 0    45     50     55     6 0

Months


US/UK q ≥ 0

US/JP q ≥ 0

0      5      10     1 5    2 0     25     30     3 5    4 0     45     50     5 5    6 0

Months

0    5    10    15   20 a a a 40   45 a a 60

Months

Figure 16: Distribution for the sign q 0 of the real exchange rate, condi-
tional on a foreign monetary policy contraction. We compare the benchmark
identification and imposing
i* — i ≥ 0 in the GR VAR specification to the
BIG VAR specification as well as the recursive Grilli-Roubini identification.


GR


US-Ger


US-UK        US-Japan


Grilli-Roub.





Figure 17: Impulse response function of the price level, conditional on a
foreign monetary policy contraction. We compare the benchmark identifica-
tion and imposing
i* i0 in the GR VAR specification to the recursive
Grilli-Roubini identification. Note that there is a considerable price puzzle
in the Grilli-Roubini specification, which is avoided with sign restrictions by
construction.

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