4.2 Numerical Results of the Regime-Switching Approach
Germany
• Fiscal Policy Rule: 1970-2003, (-) indicates that the coefficient is not state-dependent.
|
2.5% |
Median |
97.5% | |
|
Constant( SF = 1) |
-1.2090 |
0.0467 |
1.3407 |
|
Constant( SF = 2) |
4.3338 |
5.3577 |
6.3301 |
|
Yy (-) |
0.0146 |
0.1014 |
0.1871 |
|
Yg (-) |
0.4292 |
0.4976 |
0.5696 |
|
Yb (SF = 1) |
0.0372 |
0.0458 |
0.0542 |
|
Yb (SF = 2) |
0.0043 |
0.0065 |
0.0085 |
|
σ2(-) |
0.5564 |
0.6664 |
0.7953 |
|
P11 |
0.2491 |
0.4955 |
0.7707 |
|
P12 |
0.2293 |
0.5045 |
0.7509 |
|
P21 |
0.0113 |
0.0345 |
0.0804 |
|
_________P22_________ |
0.9196 |
0.9655 |
0.9887 |
Spain
• Fiscal Policy Rule: 1986-2003, (-) indicates that the coefficient is not state-dependent.
|
2.5% |
Median |
97.5% | |
|
Constant(SF = 1) |
-1.0973 |
-0.0439 |
1.1760 |
|
Constant(SF = 2) |
0.8891 |
1.9087 |
2.8654 |
|
Yy (-) |
0.0018 |
0.2111 |
0.3969 |
|
Yg (-) |
0.6217 |
0.6959 |
0.7642 |
|
Yb (-) |
0.0121 |
0.0207 |
0.0291 |
|
σ2(-) |
1.8446 |
2.3238 |
3.0440 |
|
P11 |
0.7221 |
0.8716 |
0.9588 |
|
P12 |
0.0412 |
0.1284 |
0.2779 |
|
P21 |
0.0139 |
0.0526 |
0.1475 |
|
_________P22_________ |
0.8525 |
0.9474 |
0.9861 |
18