Fiscal Policy Rules in Practice



4.2 Numerical Results of the Regime-Switching Approach

Germany

Fiscal Policy Rule: 1970-2003, (-) indicates that the coefficient is not state-dependent.

2.5%

Median

97.5%

Constant( SF = 1)

-1.2090

0.0467

1.3407

Constant( SF = 2)

4.3338

5.3577

6.3301

Yy (-)

0.0146

0.1014

0.1871

Yg (-)

0.4292

0.4976

0.5696

Yb (SF = 1)

0.0372

0.0458

0.0542

Yb (SF = 2)

0.0043

0.0065

0.0085

σ2(-)

0.5564

0.6664

0.7953

P11

0.2491

0.4955

0.7707

P12

0.2293

0.5045

0.7509

P21

0.0113

0.0345

0.0804

_________P22_________

0.9196

0.9655

0.9887

Spain

Fiscal Policy Rule: 1986-2003, (-) indicates that the coefficient is not state-dependent.

2.5%

Median

97.5%

Constant(SF = 1)

-1.0973

-0.0439

1.1760

Constant(SF = 2)

0.8891

1.9087

2.8654

Yy (-)

0.0018

0.2111

0.3969

Yg (-)

0.6217

0.6959

0.7642

Yb (-)

0.0121

0.0207

0.0291

σ2(-)

1.8446

2.3238

3.0440

P11

0.7221

0.8716

0.9588

P12

0.0412

0.1284

0.2779

P21

0.0139

0.0526

0.1475

_________P22_________

0.8525

0.9474

0.9861

18



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