Table 8: GMM Systems Estimates
|
Emerging |
Industrial | |
|
Debt |
0.028* ___________(2.10) |
0.011* |
|
Output Gap |
0.118 ___________(1.33) |
0.303* ___________(2.77)_________ |
|
Spending Gap |
-0.017 ____________(-0.81)_________ |
-0.269* ___________(-5.36)_________ |
|
Interest Expenditure |
0.008* ___________(2.13) |
0.032* ___________(3.67)_________ |
|
Lagged dependent |
0.139* ___________(2.15) |
0.524* __________(13.50)________ |
|
Ml |
-3.31* ~ |
-3.01* |
|
M2___________ |
____________-1.88__________ |
___________-1.07_________ |
|
Sargan Test__________ |
___________0.883_________ |
__________0.488_________ |
Notes: In this table the dependent variable is primary surplus (psit). M1 and M2 are tests for first order
and second order autocorrelation and are asymptotically normal. t-statistics in parentheses are based
upon Windmeijer (2005) finite sample corrected standard errors robust to serial correlation and
heteroscedasticity. Star (*) and bold indicates significant at the 5% level. Sargan Test of overidentified
restrictions reports p-values (small p-value rejects the validity of the instruments). Year dummies and
instruments t-3 and greater are included.
32
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