Consumption Behaviour in Zambia: The Link to Poverty Alleviation?



K. Ludi: consumption behaviour in Zambia

In the long run, it is put forward that Zambian real PCE is influenced by real national
income (for want of better data on disposable income) and the real short-term lending
rates applicable at the time. In other words:
ln
Ct=β1lnYt+β2rt                                                          (1)

The obvious problem with using equation (1) as the final equation is the problem of non-
stationarity. Thus, the data is to be differenced according to its order of integration, and
the regression run again:
lnCt =β1lnYt +β2rt                                                 (2)

Equation (2) thus accounts for any short-term disturbances affecting real PCE in Zambia.

The data used to estimate equations (1) and (2) are extracted from the World Bank
Development Indicators (TSE). The period under analysis is from 1970 to 2001, and
unfortunately no later due to data unavailability. Table 1 below contains a list and
description of the variables used in the various steps of the Engle-Granger approach.

Table 1: Variables used and descriptions

Variable

Description

Unit

Conversions / Workings

LN_CONS_ZK

Real private consumption
expenditure

Constant 1994 Zambian

Kwatchas (millions)

Natural logarithm.

LN_GDP_ZK

Real GDP at market prices

Constant 1994 Zambian

Kwatchas (millions)

Natural logarithm. It was not possible
to use disposable income, as would
be ideal, due to the absence of any
data on personal income tax.

LN_GDP_CAPITA

Real GDP per capita

Constant 1994 Zambian

Kwatchas (millions)

Natural logarithm.

LN_INDTAX_ZK

Net indirect taxes paid

Constant 1994 Zambian

Kwatchas (millions)

Natural logarithm.

LN_INV

Gross domestic investment

Constant 1994 Zambian

Kwatchas (millions)

Natural logarithm.

LN_M3_ZK

Real M3 money supply

Constant 1994 Zambian

Natural logarithm.



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