The name is absent



agricultural economists have long been mon-
itored by their respective associations (i.e.,
the American Economics Association (AEA)
and the American Agricultural Economics As-
sociation (AAEA)). A review of the literature
over the past few decades reveals that con-
siderable attention has been devoted to labor
market conditions for economists and agri-
cultural economists. Some of the works re-
lating specifically to economists include those
ofBoddy (1962, 1973), Broder and Ziemer;
Carter; Chandler; Clague and Levine; Helm-
berger; Reagan; and Schotzko. Works relating
specifically to the agricultural economics
profession included the works of Davis; Davis
and Allen, 1983, 1985; Hathaway; Ihnen;
Jones et al.; Lane; Lee; Peck and Babb; Red-
man; Robbins and Evans; Strauss and Tarr;
and Williams. At recent meetings of the AAEA,
considerable attention has been given to the
status, role, and opportunities of women and
blacks in the profession. This is evidencéd
by the works of Lane; Lee; Lundeen and Clau-
son; and Redman related to the opportunities
and status of women in agricultural econom-
ics. The role, status, and opportunities for
blacks is represented by the works of Davis
and Allen; Jones et al. ; and Robbins and Evans.

SUPPLY∕DEMAND CONDITIONS FOR
ECONOMISTS

Various surveys of agricultural economists
have discussed labor market conditions. Most
studies have delineated conditions based on
educational attainment and employment dis-
tribution. Helmberger analyzed market con-
ditions for agricultural economists in an
attempt to identify: Who they are? For whom
do they work? WTiat do they do? What are
their salaries? What is their supply? What is
the demand for their services?, and in general,
What is their outlook? Helmberger identified
agricultural economists as a subset of
economists listed in the National Science
Foundation’s definition of economists. Helm-
berger’s analysis focused primarily on the
13,386 economists listed in the 1970 Na-
tional Science Foundation Register. Of the
13,386 economists listed, 1,501 or 11.2 per-
cent, were agricultural economists. A very
high proportion (57.5 percent) of the agri-
cultural economists held a Ph.D. degree. Of
those holding the Ph.D. degree, 72.5 percent
worked in educational institutions. Helm-
berger indicated that the number of econo-
mists had been adequate, relative to needs,
64

but cautioned that conditions were not likely
to remain as favorable in the future.

Schotzko analyzed suρρly∕demand condi-
tions for Ph.D. agricultural economists using
data for the period 1951-1977. His analysis
showed the number of Ph.D.’s granted by
citizenship during this period. There was a
general upward trend from a total of 57 Ph.D.’s
granted in 1951 to a peak of 217 in 1971.
From 1971 to 1977 the number fluctuated
somewhat, but generally declined. In 1955,
the first year in which a distinction was made
between United States citizen recipients and
foreign recipients, 57 United States citizens
received Ph.D.’s compared to 13 foreign re-
cipients. In 1971, when the peak of awarded
degrees occurred, 145 were United States
citizens and 72 were foreign. In 1977, the
numbers were 84 and 66, respectively.

Schotzko also projected the placement
needs of agricultural economists in the United
States. Replacements in the first half of the
1980’s would average about 60 Ph.D.’s per
year and in the second half of the decade
about 83 Ph.D.’s per year. Certainly, the de-
cline in the number of degrees granted and
an increase in the proportion of foreign re-
cipients, results in a much smaller number
of Americans entering the U.S. labor market
each year. Schotzko assumed that 25 percent
of the foreign recipients would remain in
the United States and that the average number
of Ph.D.’s entering the U.S. labor market
would be 96. Of the 96, about 64 percent
would find employment in universities or
colleges. He projected that 28 percent would
be employed by the federal government and
the remainder would be employed by private
industry or foundations. He also estimated
that 50 would be required to cover retire-
ments and deaths; thus, of the 61 new Ph.D.’s
that would be needed by universities in gen-
eral, only 11 would be to cover resignations,
positions created through upgrading educa-
tional requirements, or other positions. Thus,
the projected replacement needs would ab-
sorb all the new Ph.D.’s for university em-
ployment.

The trends that Schotzko projected through
1977 have certainly continued throughout
the early 1980’s. More and more foreign stu-
dents are enrolling in U.S. universities, es-
pecially in the master’s and Ph.D. programs.
The college age population has continued to
decline, which means fewer students are en-
rolling in colleges in general and colleges of
agriculture in particular. While all institu-



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