The name is absent



Table 1. SUR Estimation Results for U.S. Soybean Export Equations, 1963-86a

VariabIesZdata

EC-9

Japan

Spain

Taiwan

South
Korea

Rest of
Worldb

Constant

2,391,000

435,600

1,676,000

751,000

38,670

-2,479,000

(1.22)

(∙58)

(2.96)"

(2.10)*

(■49)

(-3.17)"

Real U.S. soybean

-5,469

-3,045

-1,918

-877.6

-1,462

2,452

price, Rotterdamc

(-∙98)

(-2.42)*

(-■95)

(-1.48)

(-2.52)∙

(1.23)

Real U.S. soybean meal 4,258

3,522

287.3

304.5

889.3

-2,659

price, Rotterdamc

(■89)

(3.02)"

(.17)

(■52)

(1.95)*

(-1∙56)

Pork production in

1.042

2.338

.786

1.807

1.967

.949

importing country0

(5.52)”

(7.37)"

(3.35)"

(13.73)"

(7.99)"

(9.03)"

Real exchange rate

-37,080

981.6

-8,710

-4,180

564.2

23,290

index

(-3.66)"

(∙30)

(-2.71)"

(-3.04)"

(■56)

(4.29)

R2

.71

.92

.54

.95

.76

.78

Durbin-Watson

2.01

2.00

1.71

2.22

1.76

1.84

Fβ

366"

684"

- 341"

759"

348"

354”

, t-values in parentheses. Significance levels (one-tailed test with 19 degrees of freedom, two-tailed test for constant): ’ = 5 percent, " = 1
percent.

b Mexico, Portugal, Israel, Switzerland, Canada, Norway, Greece, Indonesia, and Egypt.

° Jan.-Dec. average, dollars per metric ton, deflated by U.S. CPI.

° Metrictons.

β Test of significance of model (unrestricted SUR estimation compared with restriction of estimators = Oin each equation in turn).

Table 2. OLS and 2SLS Estimation Results3

Estimator

VanabIesZdata

OLS        ...........

— 2SLS system..............

Dependent variable

U.S. soybean
exports
to worldb

Real U.S.
soybean
price

Real U.S.
soybean
meal price

U.S. soybean
exports
to worldb

Constant

6,324,000

(1.44)

111.4

(1.78)

155.6

(2.50)*

9,609,000
(1∙54)

U.S. soybean exports
to worldb

—

-.0000019

(-■76)

-.0000016

(-■56)

—

Real U.S. soybean
price, Rotterdamd

-13,950
(-1.51)

.6846

(4.03)"

—

-4,127c
(-■56)

Real U.S. soybean meal
price, Rotterdamd

7,015
(■92)

—

.4308

(2.17)*

-23,360 °
(-1.17)

Pork production in
importing countryθ

1.193

(5.82)"

—

—

1.157

(5.04)"

Real exchange rate
index

-64,630

(-2.60)"

—

—

-60,430

(-2-19)∙

R2

.87

.39

.11

—

Durbin-Watson

2.06

—

—

—

Ff

30"

5.82"

1.67

—

Degrees of freedom

19

22

22

19

a t-values in parentheses. Significance levels (two-tailed test on constants and instrument equations, one-tailed test on other variables): ' =
5 percent, ** = 1 percent. In the price (instrument) equations, the dependent variable is lagged 1 year on the right-hand side.

b Nineteen countries listed in Appendix.

c Estimate of parameter on instrumental variable.

a Jan.-Dec. average, dollars per metric ton, deflated by U.S. CPI.

β Metrictons.

1 Test of significance of model [R2∕no. of variables]∕[(1 - R2)∕(no. of observations - no. of variables)].

133



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