Table 8. Indonesia’s regional macroeconomic variables (% change from base case)
|
______________________________________West Java______________ |
__________Rest of Indonesia__________ | |||||
|
Oil productivity |
Trade price |
Total |
Oil productivity |
Trade |
Total | |
|
H’hold consumption |
-1.31 |
1.97 |
0.66 |
-1.23 |
1.45 |
0.22 |
|
Investment |
-0.58 |
-4.53 |
-5.10 |
-0.53 |
-4.44 |
-4.97 |
|
Govt consumption |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Export Volumes |
-1.76 |
-7.04 |
-8.80 |
-1.75 |
-5.37 |
-7.12 |
|
Import volumes |
-0.64 |
-1.76 |
-2.40 |
-0.74 |
-0.93 |
-1.67 |
|
Real GDP |
-1.76 |
-0.67 |
-2.43 |
-1.19 |
-0.97 |
-2.16 |
|
Employment |
-0.01 |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.00 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
Avg real wage |
-0.34 |
-3.62 |
-3.96 |
-0.33 |
-3.69 |
-4.02 |
|
Capital stocks |
-1.03 |
-1.35 |
-2.38 |
-0.93 |
-1.86 |
-2.79 |
|
Export price index |
0.09 |
16.28 |
16.36 |
0.05 |
17.91 |
17.97 |
|
Import price index |
_________0.00 |
5.12 |
5.12 |
0.00 |
8.93 |
8.93 |
Table 8 shows the regional results of the simulation. Recall that the present version of
IndoTERM contains only two regions, West Java and the rest of Indonesia. This
representation results in two regions that are relatively similar, as a large proportion of
the composite region consists of the remaining provinces of Java. These have similar
endowments to West Java, unlike the relatively sparsely populated outer islands that are
relatively rich in mineral resources. With representation of such provinces individually,
we would expect to find significant differences between the macroeconomic changes
between regions.
Table 9. Industry national outputs, Indonesia (% change from base case)
|
_______Oil productivity |
Trade price |
Total______ | |
|
Natural Gas |
0.06 |
10.12 |
10.18 |
|
Private Health |
-1.5 |
2.86 |
1.36 |
|
Private Educat |
-1.46 |
2.53 |
1.07 |
|
Poultry Prd |
-0.97 |
2.02 |
1.06 |
|
Restaurant |
-0.89 |
1.81 |
0.92 |
|
Films |
-0.57 |
1.46 |
0.89 |
|
PersHousSvc |
-1.4 |
2.24 |
0.85 |
|
Hotel |
-0.13 |
0.97 |
0.84 |
|
Animal Feed |
-0.69 |
1.38 |
0.69 |
|
RecCultSvcPr |
-0.66 |
1.32 |
0.66 |
|
Clay Cer Struc |
1.51 |
-12.91 |
-11.4 |
|
Communic Equp |
1.93 |
-13.45 |
-11.52 |
|
Plastcs Fibre |
0.72 |
-13.04 |
-12.31 |
|
Iron Ore |
0.36 |
-12.75 |
-12.39 |
|
Oth Chemicals |
-0.12 |
-13.98 |
-14.1 |
|
Scientif Equp |
1.68 |
-15.79 |
-14.11 |
|
Bas Ferr Prd |
0.53 |
-15.99 |
-15.47 |
|
Sport Goods |
1.88 |
-18.52 |
-16.64 |
|
Basic Ferrous |
0.66 |
-18.23 |
-17.56 |
|
Oth Trans Equp_______ |
_______________1.52 |
-21.13 |
-19.61 |
The biggest winners and losers at the national industry level are shown in table 9. Natural
gas is the biggest winner, due to the doubling of the export price and the absence of any
14
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