The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle



Table 7

Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy Comparisons

Maturity
(J)

1-Month Horizon

12-Month Horizon

against
RW

against
FB

against
RW

against
FB

3 months

-0.27

0.18

-1.65*

-2.43*

1 year

-0.64

-0.56

-2.04*

-2.31*

3 years

-0.02

-0.58

-2.11*

-2.18*

5 years

0.97

0.57

-1.61

-1.90*

10 years

0.49

0.34

-0.63

-1.35



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