Contents
Abstract............................................................................................................................. 3
Non-technical summary.................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 6
2. Rating systems and literature........................................................................................ 7
2.1. Overview of rating systems.................................................................................... 7
2.2. Literature review.................................................................................................... 8
3. Methodology............................................................................................................... 10
3.1. Explanatory variables........................................................................................... 10
3.2. Linear regression framework ............................................................................... 12
3.3. Ordered response framework............................................................................... 14
4. Empirical analysis ...................................................................................................... 15
4.1. Data...................................................................................................................... 15
4.2. Linear panel results .............................................................................................. 16
4.2.1. Full sample..................................................................................................... 16
4.2.2. Differentiation across sub-periods................................................................. 19
4.2.3. Differentiation across ratings levels .............................................................. 20
4.3. Ordered probit results........................................................................................... 21
4.4. Prediction analysis ............................................................................................... 23
4.5. Examples of specific country analysis................................................................. 26
5. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 28
References ...................................................................................................................... 31
Tables and figures........................................................................................................... 33
Appendix 1 - Data sources.............................................................................................58
Appendix 2 - Countries and years in most extensive rating sample..............................59
Appendix 3 - A logistic transformation ......................................................................... 60
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