The name is absent



Table A3.2 - Random Effects results, using a logistic transformation

_________Moo

dy’s___________

__________S&P_________

_______________Fit

ch_____________

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Constant

-1.267

-0.379**

-0.012

-2.157**

-1.050

0.027

(-0.74)

(-2.55)

(-0.01)

(-2.31)

(-0.46)

(0.11)

GDP per capita

0.764***

0.788***

0.585***

0.683***

0.654***

0.665***

(6.39)

(8.11)

(5.60)

(10.31)

(7.52)

(7.92)

GDP per capita Avg.

0.172

0.183

0.246**

0.100

(0.84)

(0.94)

(2.06)

(0.38)

GDP growth

0.593

0.147

-0.781

(0.41)

(0.13)

(-0.65)

GDP growth Avg.

-1.388

-5.525

-1.368

(-0.25)

(-1.33)

(-0.18)

Unemployment

-0.028**

-0.024**

0.007

-0.013

(-2.11)

(-1.99)

(0.67)

(-1.08)

Unemployment Avg.

-0.015

-0.004

0.019

(-0.84)

(-0.24)

(0.80)

Inflation

-0.089***

-0.072*

-0.089***

-0.098***

-0.044

(-3.33)

(-1.88)

(-4.35)

(-4.54)

(-1.21)

Inflation Avg.

-0.118

-0.113

-0.102***

-0.016

(-1.30)

(-1.48)

(-3.47)

(-0.15)

Gov Debt

-0.008***

-0.006**

-0.020***

-0.018***

-0.013***

-0.014***

(-2.94)

(-2.33)

(-8.99)

(-11.29)

(-4.81)

(-6.35)

Gov Debt Avg.

-0.007***

-0.005*

-0.007**

-0.006***

-0.009**

-0.007**

(-2.81)

(-1.92)

(-2.24)

(-2.93)

(-2.10)

(-2.18)

Gov Balance

3.380***

3.070***

1.989**

1.576*

1.910

1.901*

(2.60)

(3.11)

(2.00)

(1.76)

(1.63)

(1.66)

Gov Balance Avg.

1.866

-1.946

-1.152

(0.57)

(-0.47)

(-0.32)

Gov Effectiveness

0.107

0.163*

0.105

0.182***

0.262***

0.229***

(0.92)

(1.70)

(1.32)

(2.62)

(2.92)

(2.67)

Gov Effectiveness Avg.

0.714***

1.030***

1.001***

0.910***

0.832***

0.841***

(3.32)

(8.42)

(4.20)

(5.16)

(2.93)

(4.75)

External Debt

0.000

-0.001

-0.002**

-0.001*

(-0.28)

(-1.08)

(-2.12)

(-1.66)

External Debt Avg.

0.000

-0.002

-0.003

-0.003

(0.12)

(-1.07)

(-1.44)

(-1.58)

Current Account

-2.331**

-1.791**

0.195

0.054

(-2.49)

(-2.47)

(0.30)

(0.05)

Current Account Avg.

1.943

3.980**

3.785**

4.778***

4.955**

5.275**

(1.09)

(2.03)

(2.09)

(3.26)

(2.26)

(2.44)

Reserves

0.798***

-0.048

-0.120

(3.60)

(-0.29)

(-0.66)

Reserves Avg.

0.070

0.597***

0.183

0.753

(0.16)

(3.10)

(0.35)

(1.51)

Def 1

-1.044***

-1.096***

-0.561***

-0.465***

-0.510***

-0.566***

(-7.24)

(-8.18)

(-3.53)

(-4.13)

(-2.85)

(-3.38)

Def 2

0.051***

0.047***

0.021

0.072**

0.062***

(2.12)

(2.27)

(0.70)

(2.15)

(1.99)

EU

0.325***

0.234***

0.060

0.109

0.103

(3.23)

(2.92)

(0.88)

(1.30)

(1.41)

IND

1.323***

1.371***

1.255***

0.940***

1.177***

1.277***

(4.42)

(6.19)

(3.54)

(4.76)

(2.73)

(4.07)

LAC

-0.304*

-0.003

-0.332**

-0.318

(-1.72)

(-0.01)

(-2.16)

(-1.28)

R2

0.921

0.910

0.914

0.905

0.902

0.902

Countries

66

73

65

74

58

58

Observations

551

655

564

657

480

481

Hausman Test$________

15.43 (0.281)

4.33 (0.959)

15.24 (0.293)

11.86 (0.065)

15.24 (0.292)

9.01 (0.342)

Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 13, 11, 13, 6, 13, 8 degrees of freedom. The p-value is in brackets

62



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