Table A3.2 - Random Effects results, using a logistic transformation
|
_________Moo |
dy’s___________ |
__________S&P_________ |
_______________Fit |
ch_____________ | ||
|
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) | |
|
Constant |
-1.267 |
-0.379** |
-0.012 |
-2.157** |
-1.050 |
0.027 |
|
(-0.74) |
(-2.55) |
(-0.01) |
(-2.31) |
(-0.46) |
(0.11) | |
|
GDP per capita |
0.764*** |
0.788*** |
0.585*** |
0.683*** |
0.654*** |
0.665*** |
|
(6.39) |
(8.11) |
(5.60) |
(10.31) |
(7.52) |
(7.92) | |
|
GDP per capita Avg. |
0.172 |
0.183 |
0.246** |
0.100 | ||
|
(0.84) |
(0.94) |
(2.06) |
(0.38) | |||
|
GDP growth |
0.593 |
0.147 |
-0.781 | |||
|
(0.41) |
(0.13) |
(-0.65) | ||||
|
GDP growth Avg. |
-1.388 |
-5.525 |
-1.368 | |||
|
(-0.25) |
(-1.33) |
(-0.18) | ||||
|
Unemployment |
-0.028** |
-0.024** |
0.007 |
-0.013 | ||
|
(-2.11) |
(-1.99) |
(0.67) |
(-1.08) | |||
|
Unemployment Avg. |
-0.015 |
-0.004 |
0.019 | |||
|
(-0.84) |
(-0.24) |
(0.80) | ||||
|
Inflation |
-0.089*** |
-0.072* |
-0.089*** |
-0.098*** |
-0.044 | |
|
(-3.33) |
(-1.88) |
(-4.35) |
(-4.54) |
(-1.21) | ||
|
Inflation Avg. |
-0.118 |
-0.113 |
-0.102*** |
-0.016 | ||
|
(-1.30) |
(-1.48) |
(-3.47) |
(-0.15) | |||
|
Gov Debt |
-0.008*** |
-0.006** |
-0.020*** |
-0.018*** |
-0.013*** |
-0.014*** |
|
(-2.94) |
(-2.33) |
(-8.99) |
(-11.29) |
(-4.81) |
(-6.35) | |
|
Gov Debt Avg. |
-0.007*** |
-0.005* |
-0.007** |
-0.006*** |
-0.009** |
-0.007** |
|
(-2.81) |
(-1.92) |
(-2.24) |
(-2.93) |
(-2.10) |
(-2.18) | |
|
Gov Balance |
3.380*** |
3.070*** |
1.989** |
1.576* |
1.910 |
1.901* |
|
(2.60) |
(3.11) |
(2.00) |
(1.76) |
(1.63) |
(1.66) | |
|
Gov Balance Avg. |
1.866 |
-1.946 |
-1.152 | |||
|
(0.57) |
(-0.47) |
(-0.32) | ||||
|
Gov Effectiveness |
0.107 |
0.163* |
0.105 |
0.182*** |
0.262*** |
0.229*** |
|
(0.92) |
(1.70) |
(1.32) |
(2.62) |
(2.92) |
(2.67) | |
|
Gov Effectiveness Avg. |
0.714*** |
1.030*** |
1.001*** |
0.910*** |
0.832*** |
0.841*** |
|
(3.32) |
(8.42) |
(4.20) |
(5.16) |
(2.93) |
(4.75) | |
|
External Debt |
0.000 |
-0.001 |
-0.002** |
-0.001* | ||
|
(-0.28) |
(-1.08) |
(-2.12) |
(-1.66) | |||
|
External Debt Avg. |
0.000 |
-0.002 |
-0.003 |
-0.003 | ||
|
(0.12) |
(-1.07) |
(-1.44) |
(-1.58) | |||
|
Current Account |
-2.331** |
-1.791** |
0.195 |
0.054 | ||
|
(-2.49) |
(-2.47) |
(0.30) |
(0.05) | |||
|
Current Account Avg. |
1.943 |
3.980** |
3.785** |
4.778*** |
4.955** |
5.275** |
|
(1.09) |
(2.03) |
(2.09) |
(3.26) |
(2.26) |
(2.44) | |
|
Reserves |
0.798*** |
-0.048 |
-0.120 | |||
|
(3.60) |
(-0.29) |
(-0.66) | ||||
|
Reserves Avg. |
0.070 |
0.597*** |
0.183 |
0.753 | ||
|
(0.16) |
(3.10) |
(0.35) |
(1.51) | |||
|
Def 1 |
-1.044*** |
-1.096*** |
-0.561*** |
-0.465*** |
-0.510*** |
-0.566*** |
|
(-7.24) |
(-8.18) |
(-3.53) |
(-4.13) |
(-2.85) |
(-3.38) | |
|
Def 2 |
0.051*** |
0.047*** |
0.021 |
0.072** |
0.062*** | |
|
(2.12) |
(2.27) |
(0.70) |
(2.15) |
(1.99) | ||
|
EU |
0.325*** |
0.234*** |
0.060 |
0.109 |
0.103 | |
|
(3.23) |
(2.92) |
(0.88) |
(1.30) |
(1.41) | ||
|
IND |
1.323*** |
1.371*** |
1.255*** |
0.940*** |
1.177*** |
1.277*** |
|
(4.42) |
(6.19) |
(3.54) |
(4.76) |
(2.73) |
(4.07) | |
|
LAC |
-0.304* |
-0.003 |
-0.332** |
-0.318 | ||
|
(-1.72) |
(-0.01) |
(-2.16) |
(-1.28) | |||
|
R2 |
0.921 |
0.910 |
0.914 |
0.905 |
0.902 |
0.902 |
|
Countries |
66 |
73 |
65 |
74 |
58 |
58 |
|
Observations |
551 |
655 |
564 |
657 |
480 |
481 |
|
Hausman Test$________ |
15.43 (0.281) |
4.33 (0.959) |
15.24 (0.293) |
11.86 (0.065) |
15.24 (0.292) |
9.01 (0.342) |
Notes: White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected). The t statistics are in parentheses. *, **, *** - statistically
significant at the 10, 5, and 1 per cent. $ The null is that RE estimation is consistent and therefore preferable to fixed effects. The test
statistic is to be compared to a Qui-Square with 13, 11, 13, 6, 13, 8 degrees of freedom. The p-value is in brackets
62
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