Table 8: Average Mobility Measures by Cyclical Phase
for Men and Women, 1987-88 and 1990-91
|
All Workers |
Men |
Women | |
|
Average Mobility 1987-88 |
38.40 |
42.43 |
36.08 |
|
1990-91 |
37.80 |
40.95 |
35.41 |
|
Average across years |
37.36 |
41.25 |
34.56 |
|
Avg. Prob. of Moving Up 1987-88 |
23.56 |
28.24 |
19.60 |
|
1990-91 |
22.29 |
24.58 |
20.48 |
|
Average across years |
22.95 |
26.94 |
19.41 |
|
Avg. Prob. of Moving Down |
14.83 |
14.18 |
16.48 |
|
1990-91 |
15.52 |
16.36 |
14.93 |
|
Average across years |
14.41 |
14.31 |
15.14 |
|
Avg. Net Prob. of Moving Up 1987-88 |
8.73 |
14.06 |
3.12 |
|
1990-91 |
6.77 |
8.22 |
5.54 |
|
Average across years |
8.55 |
12.63 |
4.27 |
higher for men than for women — by over eight percentage points — again
consistent with lower and flatter age-earnings profiles for women than for
men.
There also appears to be a marked cyclical pattern in the net upward
probabilities for men being driven by a corresponding cyclical pattern in the
average probability of moving up. The probabilities rise in expansionary
periods and decline in recessions. The average mobility of earnings declined
with the onset of the early 1990s recession — by about 1.5 percentage points
for men, but by only about 0.5 of a point for women. So again, the cyclical
effect shows up much stronger for men than for women. For men, the
average probability of moving up declines by over 3.5 points and the average
probability of moving down rises by about two percentage points.
Consequently, the average net probability of moving up falls by almost six
percentage points. Over the ensuing expansion, these three probabilities
Cyclical Changes in Short-Run Earnings Mobility in Canada
473
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