[2] Baldi, P., Brunak, S., Chauvin Y., Andersen, C. and H. Nielsen, (2000): “Assessing
the accuracy of prediction algorithms for classification: an overview”, Bioinformatics
Review, 16 (5), 412-424.
[3] Berg, A., Borensztein, E., Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. and C. Pattillo (1999):“Anticipating
Balance of Payments Crises: The Role of Early Warning Systems,” IMF occasional
paper 186.
[4] Berg, A. and C. Pattillo, (1999): “Predicting currency crises: the indicators approach
and an alternative”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 561-586.
[5] Berg, A., Borensztein E., and C. Pattillo, (2004): “Assessing Early Warning Systems:
How Have They Worked in Practice?”, IMF working paper 04/052.
[6] Bussiere, M. and Fratzscher, M. (2002): “Towards a new early warning system of finan-
cial crises”, European Central Bank working paper 145.
[7] Calvo, G.A., (1999): “Contagion in emerging markets: when Wall Street is a career”,
University of Maryland Discussion Paper.
[8] Calvo, G.A. and E. Mendoza, (2000) “Rational contagion and globalisation of securities
markets”, Journal of International Economics, 51(1), 79-113.
[9] Chang, R. and A. Velasco (1999): “Liquidity crises in emerging markets: theory and
policy”, NBER working paper 7272
[10] Chauvet, M. and F. Dong (2004) “Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency
Crises “ The Asian Experience,” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,
First Quarter, Vol. 89, No. 1, 26-37, 2004.
[11] Cipollini, A. and Kapetanios, G. (2003): “Dynamic Factor analysis of financial conta-
gion in Asia”, Queen Mary, University of London, working paper 498.
[12] Forni, M., Giannone, D., Lippi, M., Reichlin L. (2005): “Opening the Black Box: struc-
tural factor model versus structural VAR models” CEPR discussion paper 4133.
[13] Frankel, J. A., and A.K. Rose (1996): “Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: an
empirical treatment”, Journal of International Economics, 41, 351-66.
[14] Fuertes, A. and Kalotychou E. (2006a): “Early warning system for soverign debt crisis:
the role of heterogeneity”, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51(2), 1420-
1441.
17