the uneven rate of growth of our population during the first half of
this century. The analysis begins with population. By 1965 we may
expect the nation’s population to be about 193 million, in comparison
with 171 million today.
To supply the needs of a population of this size, on a per capita
basis, and assuming recent rates of improvement in the level of living,
will require an estimated gross national product of about 560 billion
dollars by 1965, assuming no change in prices from 1955 levels. This
represents a real increase, regardless of price changes, of between 40
and 45 percent in the decade to the mid-1960’s.
To produce such a large quantity of goods and services, allowing
for recent rates of improvement in productivity in the economy as a
whole and for some shortening of the number of days in the working
year, will require a net addition to the country’s labor force of approxi-
mately 10 million people to the 1955 total, or some 6 to 7 million over
current levels.
THE LABOR FORCE OF 1965
It is clear that the additional people needed to man the economy
at this level are here and will be available in 1965. The real question
is: Who will they be, and can they do the job? Of the 10 million in-
crease in the total labor force anticipated between 1955 and 1965, over
half will be women. (Today only one of three people employed is a
woman.)
Summarizing in another way, almost half (both men and women)
will be over 45 years of age; the other half will be almost entirely young
people 14 to 24 years of age. By 1965 the number of young men aged
25 to 34 in the labor force will actually decline by 750,000. This is a
result of the very low birth rates of the 1930’s.
In general, women and youngsters are not as closely attached to
their jobs as are men in the prime of their working lives; they have a
greater tendency to work part time or part year; to shift jobs more
often and to require special training or retraining. This, in itself, means
greater difficulty in meeting the demands for the type of people whom
industry in particular has been accustomed to hiring in large numbers.
Consequently, the tendency will be high bidding for the skills that are
really scarce, and rising wages and salaries in those occupations.
I am sure I need not point out to this audience that these scarce
skills are used in making many of the products that farmers have to
buy—machinery, fuels, chemicals, and many of the goods bought for
family living.
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