LABOR POLICY AND THE OVER-ALL ECONOMY



MORE TRAINED WORKERS NEEDED

The increasing pressure for people with higher levels of education
and skill in their jobs is another factor in this picture. Although specific
occupational requirements by 1965 cannot be forecasted accurately,
we have made some rough estimates by broad occupational categories,
based upon occupational trends for the first half of the century.

The need for professional and technical personnel will increase sub-
stantially, perhaps by an additional 2 million people from the level
of 1955; an even greater increase, of the order of 3 million, will be re-
quired in skilled personnel such as craftsmen; and in clerical and sales
personnel. The requirements for common labor will almost certainly
decline. This has been the trend over the decades as the use of ma-
chinery in all types of activities has increased.

LESS EMPLOYMENT ON FARMS

We also anticipate a further reduction in employment in agricul-
ture. By 1965, if past trends continue, farm employment will decline
to about 5 million from a level of 7.5 million in 1950. Today farm em-
ployment is between 6 and 7 million, depending on the season. This is
only 10 percent of the labor force. In 1910 the 11 million farm work-
ers then employed represented over 30 percent of the labor force.

Before I discuss the implications for agriculture of this general
economic and labor situation, let me briefly mention several related
developments in the working patterns of farm residents which are
worth noting. In general, they are not new to you—but their magnitude
has surprised me.

THE TREND TOWARD OFF-FARM WORK

Out of 9.5 million farm residents who were employed in April
1956, almost 3 million worked at jobs in nonagricultural industries.
One-third of the employed men and one-half of the employed women
worked at nonfarm jobs.

The building of good roads, the increase in automobile ownership,
and, to some extent, the trend toward decentralization of industry
have contributed to an increase of commuting by farm residents to
nonfarm jobs. Moreover, there is considerable double job-holding
among farm people. As a matter of fact, in July 1956 nearly one
million persons held both agricultural and nonagricultural jobs con-
currently.

Most of these secondary jobs were concentrated in such industries
as construction and manufacturing, with comparatively few in the
service activities. Thus, agriculture is providing industry and com-
38



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