$15000 and $25000 respectively. As the regression results (and Heckscher-Ohlin logic) suggest, the
impact on protectionism is much greater in the richer countries. Thus, the probability that protect is 5
declines by only 2.3 percentage points in the poorest country, but by 5.5 percentage points in the
middle-income country, and by 8.4 percentage points in the rich country (a fall of27%). Clearly, skill
has a large effect on preferences in rich countries.
The only other variable to matter to this extent was gender: being a woman increases the
probability of the most protectionist response by 7.4 percentage points, or 24%. This is clearly a large
effect. Being internationally mobile reduces the probability that protect takes on the value five by 4
percentage points, while never having lived abroad increases that probability by almost the same
amount (3.6 percentage points). The other variables do not have a particularly large effect on
attitudes.
We then generated the simulated probabilities implied by the model given in column 5 of
Table 4. This allowed us to explore the impact of further variables, not available for all countries, on
preferences. The simulated probability that protect would take on the value 5 was equal to nearly
26%; being a rural dweller increases this probability by 4.4 percentage points, but being unemployed
only increases it (surprisingly, it might be argued) by 2.1 percentage points. Belonging to atrade
union has almost no impact on attitudes, which again seems surprising; but being self-employed
reduces the probability of an extreme protectionist response by some 2.6 percentage points.
5. What have we learned?
There are a number ofkey results from this study.
First, protectionist attitudes are strongly related to both patriotism and chauvinism; this is a
quite general result across countries, and the effect is quantitatively as well as statistically significant.
To that extent, it would appear that trade policy preferences are heavily influenced by non-economic,
in this case cultural or ideological, factors. Nationalism is, of course, a complex phenomenon with
many roots, including, as noted above, adverse economic experiences and conditions. A totally
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