rates (the number of 6-14 year olds compared to the 15-64 year old population) have
generally been declining and now average about 33% across all developing countries.
Sub Saharan Africa still has an increasing ratio which is approaching 50% implying
that there are only two adults per school age child potentially available for employment.
This has obvious implications for the resources available to support the education
system. It also implies that a significant proportion of working age literate adults would
have to become teachers if teacher pupil ratios are to be kept within reasonable bounds -
as many as one in forty according to a recent estimate (UNESCO 1991:22).
In those countries with low population growth rates the problems of financing
education systems are much less severe than elsewhere. An example is China which has
achieved high participation rates partly as a result of favourable demographic changes
without an excessive increase in the financing required (Lewin with Coldough 1993:
Chapter 3). Overall population growth rates have fallen from 2.2% (1965-80) to 1.2%
(1980-87) and are projected to remain at this low level into the next century (World
Bank 1989 a: 214). More particularly the rate of growth of the 6- 11 year old age group
declined from 3.3 % (1965-75) to 0.6% (1975-80). From 1980-85 the age group
actually contracted at a rate of -3.9% (Lockheed and Verspoor 1990:165). This
contraction is a direct result of family planning and the one child policy. The 6-11 year
old age group is now expected to grow at only 0.8% for the rest of the decade.
The effects of demographic changes are still working their way through. If the
projections of population growth made by the World Bank in 1984 (World Bank 1984:
Table 3.3) became a reality the number of 7-12 year olds in China would reduce by 50
million between 1983-and 2000 (from 144 million to 94 million) and there would be a
decline in total primary enrolments by 42 million. This would enable a gross enrolment
ratio of 100 to be achieved with 70% less school places than were available in 1983. In
fact the school age population has shrunk more slowly than anticipated in the early
1980's. A more recent projection (Lockheed and Verspoor 1990:165) suggests that the 6-
11 year old population will recover from a low of 122 million in 1985 to 137 million by
the year 2000 - this is however comparable with the total number of school places
provided in 1983. Even modest economic growth could therefore ensure rising levels of
expenditure per student.
In another recent analysis we have modelled the effects of falling population growth on
educational costs. A simulation model based on data derived from Sub-Saharan African
education systems was constructed (Colclough with Lewin 1993: Chapter 5). In the
basic model population growth was assumed as 3.3% the weighted mean for the region.
Initially the model was used to show the costs of increasing primary GERs from their
current value (69.5) to 100 by the year 2000 and maintaining them at this level until
2005. Primary recurrent costs increase by 100% in 2000 and by 137% by 2005.
Reducing population growth lowers these costs to 71% and 87% of their 1990 values
respectively potentially releasing more resources for improvements in quality.