Education and development the issues and the evidence - Education Research Paper
No. 06, 1993, 61 p.
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1.3 Population growth and
demographic change.
1.3.1 Population growth
1.3.2 Fertility and health
1.3.3 Increasing HIV infection
1.3.4 Urbanisation
1.3.5 Displaced populations and refugees
Five major issues related to population influence the magnitude and quality of the
educational development assistance problem. These are concerned with population
growth, the related issues of fertility and child health, the impact of increasing levels of
HIV infection, urbanisation, and the movements of displaced peoples and refugees.
1.3.1 Population growth
Population growth remains the single most important factor in determining the long
term growth of demand for educational services. It is intimately linked with the
problems of providing adequate resources to meet expanded demand. Put simply in
countries where the growth rate of the school age group exceeds the rate of economic
growth it is clear that, ceteris paribus, larger and larger proportions of central
government expenditure will have to be allocated to financing education to maintain
current enrolment ratios. Without these increases, the expenditure per student will have
to decline with probable consequences for the quality of what can be delivered and the
access that can be provided to educational services. Improving levels of expenditure per
student from their widely inadequate existing levels implies a concomitantly greater
financial burden.
Population growth rates for the 6- 11 year old population in low income countries
projected to the year 2000 have a weighted mean of 2.7% excluding China and India
(Lockheed and Verspoor 1990:165). For Sub-Saharan Africa the weighted mean is
3.3% (World Bank 1988:158). If the school age population grows at 3.3% annually it
will increase by 50% in about 12 years and double in 20 years. School age dependency